where is the process, more than a year after the “no” to independence in the referendum?

The government receives the independence and non-independence delegations in Paris on Tuesday to relaunch discussions on the institutional future of the archipelago.

What future for New Caledonia? Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne received a separatist delegation on Tuesday, April 11, then the non-independentists. The objective is to relaunch the dialogue on the institutional future of the archipelago, while the Caillou rejected its independence by referendum more than a year ago. A vote that remains contested.

What is at stake is the future status of the archipelago. For more than twenty years, New Caledonia has had a temporary status since this French territory in the Pacific is engaged in a process of self-determination. It is the Nouméa agreement, signed in 1998, which grants it this special status. This agreement is itself inherited from the Matignon agreement signed in 1988 to end a decade of violence in New Caledonia in the 1980s.

Clearly: the text provides for the transfer of certain powers from France to New Caledonia, which has its own institutions (a local executive, an assembly for each of the three provinces and a congress). New Caledonia also has partial autonomy, even if the State (through the presence of a High Commissioner) remains competent on certain subjects such as immigration, currency or even the maintenance of order and defence.

A third referendum deemed “illegitimate” by the separatists

Except that for a little over a year, the Nouméa agreement has been disputed. Precisely since the third and last referendum on self-determination which took place on December 12, 2021. The “no” to the question “Do you want New Caledonia to gain full sovereignty and become independent?” won for the third time, but in a very particular context since the vote took place in the midst of the Covid epidemic. The Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), separatist, had called for a boycott at the polls. Result: the participation rate was halved compared to previous elections. And the result is considered illegitimate by supporters of independence.

>> Referendum in New Caledonia: after the new victory of the “no”, has the Caillou finished with independence?

Conversely, the loyalists, those who want to remain in the bosom of France, believe that with three “no” victories in three successive referenda (2018, 2020, 2021) provided for by the Nouméa agreement, it is time to give a definitive institutional framework to New Caledonia. Especially since local elections will take place in May 2024. A new statute should be approved by then.

Seen from Paris, New Caledonia is a strategic territory. There is a first economic issue.
The archipelago has immense nickel resources, almost a quarter of the world’s reserves of this mineral which will be increasingly needed, particularly for car batteries. This is also an argument often put forward by loyalists: the State has financially supported the sector in recent years, with at least 2 billion euros paid, so the nickel mines (the archipelago’s leading employer ) have experienced difficulties. And then for Paris, the Caillou is also an important territory for the defense. Nearly 1,500 soldiers are deployed on the spot as well as military buildings. They represent the first French contingent in the Pacific zone.


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