More and more breakdowns, wanderings in forecasting electricity needs, vagueness surrounding its priorities, its independence and its next CEO. There is no shortage of questions about the future of Hydro-Québec.
Why will we run out of electricity by 2050?
“Decarbonization” is on everyone’s lips. Quebec has set itself ambitious goals – to decarbonize the province’s current energy uses to be carbon neutral by 2050. For this, Hydro-Quebec estimates that it needs more than 100 additional terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity by there. That’s more than half of its annual production capacity. Another study estimated needs at 137 TWh by 2050. Be that as it may, we are far from the “surplus” of 40 TWh that we were still talking about in 2021… The conversion of buildings to electricity, the electrification of transportation, huge business demand and electricity export contracts south of the border explain the shortfall. Demand for electricity from industry had been declining for 20 years, but today Hydro-Québec is overwhelmed. In January, we learned that companies, particularly in the battery and green hydrogen sectors, had already sent Hydro-Québec power supply requests totaling 23,000 megawatts, the equivalent of building 13 complexes such as the Roman River. Of this total, 10,000 MWh are for “serious” projects and are being considered by the government.
Is it better to build new dams or opt for other energy solutions?
No project for a new power station has yet been confirmed, but Hydro-Québec is currently studying the hydroelectric potential of the Petit Mécatina River, on the North Shore. But besides adding new power plants or dams – which could take 10 to 15 years to build – Hydro has other options. wind power, among others. Hydro recently selected six wind farm projects in different regions of Quebec, for nearly 1150 MW of installed capacity, and launched a new call for tenders targeting 1500 MW of wind energy. The goal is to double wind power capacity in Quebec by 2030. Also, repairing and modernizing the 62 existing hydraulic power stations, half of which are more than 50 years old, will make it possible to obtain additional megawatts without having to touch new rivers. Three power stations are already being repaired, but that will be expensive: $5 billion annually, according to the state-owned company. Finally, Hydro focuses on energy efficiency by inviting Quebecers to “sobriety” and reduce their energy consumption.
Should Hydro-Québec export less electricity?
At the same time as Minister Pierre Fitzgibbon invites citizens to “energy sobriety”, two huge export contracts to the United States will ensure that some 20 TWh of electricity will soon be sent to the American northeast for 20 and 25 years old. The guarantee of multi-billion dollar revenue is certainly welcome, but the timing is puzzling. The project to supply electricity to the City of New York is well underway and work has already begun. But that of Massachusetts, in which Hydro-Quebec is committed to supplying 9.4 billion kilowatt hours per year for 20 years, is bogged down in legal battles. Should the Crown corporation take the opportunity to review this agreement, instead of continuing to spend millions in legal fees to fight against opponents of the project, including environmental groups? This is a question the next big boss will have to think about.
Should energy sobriety be imposed on Quebecers?
Starting your dishwasher at night, turning down the heating at home, these are ideas suggested by the Minister of Economy, Innovation and Energy, Pierre Fitzgibbon, in December, when he announced the deposit of a bill to this effect during the year 2023. The minister is leaning in particular towards dynamic pricing, where electricity will cost more during peak periods. Hydro-Québec also wants to convince as many Quebecers as possible to join its Hilo program of smart appliances. The goal: to save more than 8 TWh by 2029, the equivalent of the annual consumption of a city the size of Quebec. However, discordant voices are beginning to be heard in the face of the imperative of decarbonization and “energy sobriety”. Professor Daniel Gill, among others, published a letter in La Presse on April 11, where he pointed out that Quebec is preparing to decarbonize with billions “for results, let’s face it, practically nil on the scale world, while our needs in health, education and housing are enormous”.
Why are breakdowns so frequent and numerous?
The most recent episode of ice storm showed us the weakness of the electricity network, and the slowness in quickly reconnecting users. Shortage of linemen (especially in Montreal), difficulty in finding subcontractors to carry out work, lack of investment in vegetation control for several years, obsolete facilities… It is not surprising that the Auditor General, Guylaine Leclerc, revealed in December that the average duration of outages had increased by 63% between 2012 and 2021, even when excluding major weather events. Some experts, such as Professor Normand Mousseau, believe that the state corporation should consider burying overhead power lines in certain key locations. A whole project awaits Hydro and its next CEO, who will have to make up for years of backlog in infrastructure maintenance.
What is the real strategy?
Over the years, several statements have left people wondering, and testify to a lack of consensus on the long-term vision and strategy of the largest state-owned company.
” [ …] habits have to be changed. Maybe wash the dishes, well, we’ll do it at midnight”
–Pierre Fitzgibbon
“Quebec is in a place where you can choose, not be the one-dollar electricity store in the world”
– Sophie Brochu
“If people start to self-produce with solar, they will consume less […] this is the murderous spiral”
– Eric Martel