On August 24, the Constitutional Court of Thailand suspended the prime minister and general responsible for the 2014 military coup, Prayut Chan-o-cha, while he considered a petition on the possibility of having reached the limit constitutional term set at eight years to serve as Prime Minister.
Posted at 1:00 p.m.
The Court’s decision was finally handed down on September 30. Verdict: The Prime Minister can stay in office, the court having ruled that the limit of the term only applied from the establishment of the new Constitution of 2017. A controversial decision, if not surprising, which will certainly come to cause important events in the days to come.
A look back at the political rivalries that led to this legal saga
In January 2001, Thaksin Shinawatra, one of the country’s richest businessmen, won an overwhelming majority in the elections against the Democratic Party, a center-right party attached to the monarchy. Despite a significant increase in his majority in the 2005 elections, Thaksin was overthrown the following year by a military coup for corruption and abuse of power. Convicted three times by a judicial branch positioning itself more and more in favor of the conservative and royalist elite, Thaksin can no longer stand for election and his political party is dissolved by decision of the Constitutional Council on May 30, 2007.
In opposition to this decision, the Thaksin clan created a new party the same year, the Pheu Thai, headed by Thaksin’s younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra. This won a large majority with 265 out of 500 seats in the 2011 elections, but was finally overthrown by another coup in 2014, on the 19e of its history.
Behind this coup is the general and current Prime Minister of Thailand, Prayut Chan-o-cha, the latter promising a return to democracy. Prayut establishes a new constitution in 2017 offering him a considerable advantage for future elections: in addition to a House of Representatives of 500 members elected by the population, a Senate of 250 people participates in the choice of the Prime Minister. However, the 250 members of this Senate are appointed by the military junta, ensuring their support for the military government.
We will have to wait until 2019 to see new elections. The results show a major divide between Prayut and Shinawatra supporters. In the end, the former won, with the support of 249 of the 250 members of the Senate appointed by the junta.
What does the Court’s decision tell us?
It’s no big surprise that the court’s decision vindicates Prayut. From the decision to temporarily suspend the Prime Minister, several activists remained skeptical about the decision of the Constitutional Court. For these opposition groups, the court was only looking to buy time to find a legal interpretation that would allow Prayut to stay in power.
To this end, a few days earlier, the Criminal Division of the Supreme Court had just acquitted former Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban for corruption. Suthep was one of the staunchest critics of the Shinawatra and a leading figure in the massive protest movement that occupied the government palace in 2013.
What future for democracy in Thailand?
With the next elections scheduled for May 7, 2023, three political factions are coveting victory. The Palang Pracharat military party has led the government since the 2014 coup; the Pheu Thai Party, whose candidate for the elections could be Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, this family occupying an important place in the country’s political scene since 2001; and the new Move Forward party, which campaigns on a progressive, anti-militarist platform.
However, three major challenges are imposed on these last two parties wishing to overthrow the Palang Prachatat party: the strong resistance of the military clinging to power; a constitutional court that increasingly aligns itself in favor of military rule; and an unelected 250-member junta-appointed Senate with considerable leverage in electing a prime minister.
It goes without saying that the upcoming elections are a turning point for democracy in Thailand, especially since Thaksin’s 13 years of political exile are sorely lacking in the memory of young students, new voters. To follow then these new political parties which are positioning themselves as a solution to get the country out of the current polarization between Prayut and the Shinawatra, because this rhetoric has found takers among these young voters.