As soon as the private militia of Evguéni Prigojine launched its sling against the Russian army, Internet users accused the West or even Moscow of being in charge. Theories very relayed, but unfounded.
“A CIA coup”, “a staging of Moscow”… Barely hours after the events began, conspiracy theories about the mutiny of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner flourished on the web. However, Evguéni Prigojine clarified his intentions on Monday June 26: “the objective of the revolt was to save our Wagner group, not to overthrow Russian power”he said on Telegram, while the Russian army wanted to contract the volunteers engaged in Ukraine with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Franceinfo analyzes two of the most relayed theories on this mutiny.
The United States (or the West) would have financed the Wagner rebellion
Soon after the announcement of Wagner’s slingshot, several well-followed Twitter accounts suggested that the US Department of Defense funded the private Russian militia rebellion. “The Pentagon makes a $6.2 billion accounting error [5,66 milliards d’euros] . Seventy-two hours later, the Wagner group staged a military coup against Moscow.”is surprised the American podcaster and conservative Elijah Schaffer in a tweet shared nearly 10,000 times. A other account evokes a collaboration monetized 1.3 billion dollars (1.19 billion euros) between Evguéni Prigojine and the CIA.
Even wackier, the Trumpist influencer Joey Mannarino even suspect US President Joe Biden for fomenting this “Rebellion” with the US intelligence agency to divert attention from the opinion of his son Hunter’s court cases. He pleaded guilty on June 20 to tax evasion and possession of firearms.
Less surprising: the hypothesis of a Western machination seduces in Russia. Viktor Zolotov, the head of the National Guard, thus considered that the rebellion had been “prepared and inspired by Western intelligence services”Who “were aware weeks before she started”. “Everything was inspired by the West. Everything was organized there. I do not exclude that Western intelligence agents were involved”he accused, without providing evidence.
“In a conflict, the States pursue their own interests. If we assume that Russia is an adversary of the United States, indeed the United States has an interest in seeing Russia weakened”analyzes Edouard Jolly, specialist in contemporary conflicts and researcher at the Institute for Strategic Research of the Military School.
“The conspiratorial speeches will translate these interests into intentions, by personifying them. It is convenient, but completely false.”
Edouard Jolly, specialist in contemporary conflicts and researcher at the Institute for Strategic Research of the Military Schoolat franceinfo
Where does the sum of 6.2 billion dollars mentioned on the networks come from? The very real accounting error was announced on June 20 by the Pentagon. Initially, the administration explained that it had overstated the amount of arms supplied to Ukraine by $3 billion, before reassessing it to $6.2 billion. “In a significant number of cases, the services used replacement costs rather than net book value, thereby overestimating the value of equipment taken from US inventory and supplied to Ukraine.“, said one official. So it’s not money that disappeared into the air, as Timothy James suggests, but money that was not spent.
As revealed by CNN and the Washington Post, the American authorities and intelligence were also well aware of Yevgeny Prigojine’s desire to mobilize his forces against Moscow. The Ukrainian authorities were also monitoring the leader of the private militia, since the start of his standoff with the Russian Ministry of Defense. But Joe Biden insisted on recalling on Monday that Westerners had nothing to do with the events: “We were not involved. (…) This is an internal problem in Russia”, he said during a speech. Russian intelligence services are still investigating whether there was Western interference in the failed mutiny, Moscow told Reuters.
Wagner’s rebellion would be a staging of Moscow
Another theory quickly circulated. Vladimir Putin would have orchestrated the mutiny to encourage Ukraine to go further in hostilities and justify a tough response, or better: to flush out traitors to the fatherland. “The scenario of a Maskirovka [art russe de la tromperie militaire] is now the most plausible” decreed on Twitter the French influencer Idriss Aberkane, known for having shared misinformation during the pandemic, commenting on the volte-face of the Wagner troops.
The scenario of a Maskirovka is now the most plausible https://t.co/s9jSQdmjyP
— Idriss J. Aberkane Ph.D, Ph.D & Ph.D (@idrissaberkane) June 24, 2023
“The false flag [“faux drapeau” en français, opération clandestine répréhensible visant à faire porter la responsabilité à d’autres, afin de justifier des représailles à leur encontre] is something usual. We find this among pro-Russian propagandists. Every time the Russian army accuses a failure, it is a question of explaining that they are making a feint”observes Edouard Jolly. “The common point with the theory on the CIA is that we will give a rationality, an intention, a reassuring explanation to an event which is the result of chance”, analyzes the researcher. So these theories “give the impression that belligerent political actors have control over the course of events with which they are confronted”.
And if Yevgeny Prigojine’s will was in fact to “save Wagner”as he said on Monday? For Edouard Jolly, the functioning of mercenaries, which have existed since Antiquity, is not a mystery. “Such an organization can rebel against the state that employs it for two main reasons: the state no longer pays, or the private organization has taken on such importance that the State will want to reintegrate it into its regular forces. That’s what’s happening,” he believes.
According to the researcher, Evguéni Prigojine would not “than an entrepreneur who defends his business, who is in the process of being nationalized”. Indeed, the head of the militia had multiplied verbal provocations against Moscow, openly targeting the Russian general staff. By choosing a conspiratorial reading grid to analyze Wagner’s attempted mutiny, “we underestimate the autonomy of these people, who make their own decisions and do not need to be guided”concludes Edouard Jolly.