The dike gave way. For several months, criticism has been coming from all sides to denounce an out-of-control federal immigration policy which contributes to the housing crisis, particularly due to the meteoric growth in the number of temporary foreign workers and foreign students who are settle in the country.
Several of the most respected economists accuse Ottawa of ignoring the capacity of the Canadian economy to accommodate such a large number of newcomers without making the investments necessary to build new housing and new infrastructure. In short, to pursue an immigration policy which aims to boost economic growth – if not to win the votes of certain political clienteles – but which rather ends up creating all sorts of perverse effects whose harmful repercussions will be felt in the years to come. future.
Until this week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Minister of Immigration, Marc Miller, responded to these criticisms by promising to examine the possibility of making minor changes to temporary immigration programs. They have never demonstrated a sense of urgency that justifies correcting the gaping flaws in these programs that led to the explosion of this sector.
As of 1er Last October, Canada had more than 2.5 million non-permanent residents, an increase of more than 40% in one year. Their number has certainly increased since that date, because nothing has been done to limit the granting of work and study permits. This suits employers and post-secondary institutions who, across the country, have become addicted to federal temporary immigration programs, to the detriment of the Canadian economy as a whole.
In a study published earlier this week, economists Stéfane Marion and Alexandra Ducharme of National Bank Financial claim that Canada is currently facing a “demographic trap” due to a five times higher population growth rate. to the average of member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Their observation is scathing: “Currently, we do not have the infrastructure and capital stock necessary to absorb demographic growth and improve our standard of living. »
Such a situation, typically the lot of emerging countries with a high birth rate, generates a vicious circle which leads to collective impoverishment. In Canada, our demographic trap results from an immigration policy deliberately chosen by the Trudeau government.
A cleaning is necessary. It remains to be seen whether MM. Trudeau and Miller will show political courage and set things right. Tuesday, during a luncheon before the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal, Mr. Trudeau said he did not intend to touch the permanent immigration thresholds. The country plans to welcome 500,000 new permanent residents in 2025 and in the years that follow. “This is the figure we need to continue to support economic growth and opportunities,” he argued. They are mainly international students and temporary workers. These are the groups that we will have to put a little under control. »
“A little under control”? National Bank economists estimate that the growth of the Canadian population should be reduced to between 300,000 and 500,000 people per year “if we want to escape the demographic trap.” However, the Canadian population increased by more than 1.2 million in 2023. Half-measures will not restore balance. In-depth reforms will be necessary.
Mr. Miller is considering tightening the screws on certain provinces so that their post-secondary institutions accept fewer foreign students.
Ontario alone is home to more than half of the country’s nearly 900,000 international students. They are enrolled not only in the province’s universities and community colleges, but also in hundreds of vocational training schools. Some of these schools are accused of exploiting vulnerable foreign students who seek to flee their home countries by charging astronomical tuition fees without providing a decent education. But it’s not enough to crack down on these “puppy mills,” as Mr. Miller calls them. The vast majority of foreign students in Canada are enrolled in university or technical college, and their numbers should also be reduced.
However, a reduction in the number of foreign students could plunge most of the country’s post-secondary institutions into a financial crisis that could threaten their survival. This is especially the case in Ontario, where Doug Ford’s Conservative government introduced a freeze on tuition fees in 2019. The province’s post-secondary institutions have since turned massively towards international students, whose tuition fees have increased. increase to several times those paid by Canadian students.
And what to do with the growing number of temporary foreign workers? Judging by Mr. Miller’s silence on this subject, it seems that the minister is in no hurry to tackle it. However, the promise made this week by Pierre Poilievre to rebalance immigration thresholds based on housing construction changes the political situation. The Conservative leader had until then carefully avoided addressing the issue of immigration in his speeches on the housing crisis.
His change of direction signals the start of a political debate on immigration to which Canadians outside Quebec are little accustomed because the consensus on the issue seemed unshakeable. But the Liberals allowed the water to rise. And the dam no longer holds.