When climate skeptics hijack a scientific study

A US study observes a rapid cooling of an area of ​​the Atlantic Ocean and climate skeptics conclude that global warming does not exist.

This is the story of a study that did not have the impact it had hoped for. Published on August 14, this report from the American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration claims to have observed a cooling of parts of the Atlantic Ocean. It received a wide echo in the Anglo-Saxon and French-speaking press.

And it didn’t take long for climate skeptics to seize on it. “New bug in the global warming narrative”gets angry at X François Asselineau, the president of the Popular Republican Union (UPR), who does not believe in global warming. “This should call for modesty from those who claim to understand everything about the climate.”adds Florian Philippot, the founder of the Les Patriotes movement, on Facebook. But have they understood?

⚠️NEW BUG IN THE NARRATIVE
WARMING
🥵1/2/24
The Atlantic broke heat records on August 23.
We are told that this “worrying” phenomenon confirms the seriousness of global warming.
🥶20/8/4
Atlantic breaks cold records on August 24.
No one knows why. pic.twitter.com/rXA36jDcvN

— François Asselineau (@f_asselineau) August 20, 2024

In truth, the study does not conclude at all that global warming does not exist. The misinterpretation of the study comes from several elements, including a bad title, a lack of knowledge about the Atlantic, and the determination of climate skeptics to find evidence that the climate is not warming.

The first confusion comes from the title (since changed) of an article published in the New Scientist : “The Atlantic is cooling at record speed and nobody knows why” (“The Atlantic is cooling at record speed and no one knows why”). Title taken almost verbatim from the International mailwhose editorial line is to republish articles from the press around the world. And it is this article from International mail (whose title has since been changed) which fueled confusion and especially the wishes of climate skeptics.

However, the study, published on a US government website and available here (in English), does not talk about the Atlantic Ocean as a whole but only about the water on the surface in the equatorial zone, along the African coast. To fully understand its conclusions, we must first know that this area of ​​the Atlantic always cools at this time of year, after having experienced maximum temperatures in the spring. This is usual.

What the study found new is that this year the equatorial Atlantic cooled very quickly, much faster than usual, even though it had been very warm, and a little colder than average, by 0.5 or 1 degree. Scientists don’t yet know why.

If this continues, it will be a climate phenomenon called “La Niña”. It is the opposite of the El Niño phenomenon, which brings heat. And this is what the study by the American Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration is really about, since it is entitled: “An Atlantic Niña is about to develop. Here’s why we should care.”

But these conclusions do not challenge the thousands of scientific proofs of global warming, nor the fact that the Atlantic as a whole has broken temperature records since the beginning of the year, much less the temperature records broken across the planet month after month.

Asked by AFP Factuel, the author of the report, Franz Philip Tuchen, explains that “This cold episode in the equatorial Atlantic should not be considered as a sign of a decrease in global warming, but rather as a short-term deviation,” adding to the underlying trend of global warming.

As for the fact that scientists are still unaware of the reasons for this rapid cooling, it is necessary to remember that researchers do not yet know the full extent of the consequences of global warming on the El Niño or La Niña weather phenomena. But what is certain is that climate change is also disrupting the oceans.