The prospect of a decisive election outcome on November 5 between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is uncertain, with swing states exhibiting increased indecisiveness and potential delays in vote counting. Tight margins may lead to recounts and prolonged verdicts, as absentee ballot rules and provisional ballots contribute to the timeline. States like North Carolina and Nevada allow ballots to be counted after Election Day, which further complicates timely results, echoing experiences from the contentious 2020 election.
The possibility of an election outcome remaining uncertain is becoming more plausible as we approach November 5, with the competition between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump intensifying. It is conceivable that we may not know the final results right away, potentially prolonging the suspense for days. This uncertainty stems from swing states that are exceptionally indecisive and delays attributed to varied voting regulations across different regions.
In states where the electorate is sharply divided along party lines, with only slim margins separating the candidates, election results may take longer to determine. This issue is exacerbated in states with smaller populations. As Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar noted during the 2020 election, “The closer the election, the longer it takes.“
Could There Be a Recount?
The upcoming 2024 election seems poised for potential indecisiveness. Current polling data shows a tight race, with some surveys suggesting a slight lead for Donald Trump. However, this advantage often falls within the polls’ margin of error, highlighting the need for caution in interpreting the results.
If these narrow margins hold true on Election Day, both candidates may need to brace for an extended waiting period. Possible outcomes could include local recounts or run-off elections in areas where vote counts are remarkably close. For instance, in Wisconsin, state law allows a candidate trailing by less than 1% to request a recount, with costs covered if the margin is under 0.25%.
The timeline for declaring a winner could also stretch due to appeals, as witnessed in Michigan during the previous election. Trump’s team had sought to pause the counting process to conduct a “review” of already tallied votes.
Furthermore, the variability in voting procedures across American states poses additional challenges. Different regulations regarding absentee ballots, particularly for service members and citizens abroad, can lead to delays. In North Carolina, for example, absentee ballots will be accepted until November 14, provided they were mailed by Election Day. Some local election offices may choose to wait for all ballots to arrive before beginning the counting process. Similarly, Nevada allows ballots arriving by November 12 to be included in the count as long as they were mailed by November 5.
The existence of “provisional” ballots also contributes to potential delays, as these are issued when there are questions about a voter’s registration and must be verified before being counted. Additionally, political parties often have the right to observe election processes, but disputes in places like Philadelphia—involving Trump supporters’ demands to be closer to counting areas—have previously complicated and slowed down the election tallying process.