When a by-election changes the political situation

A by-election doesn’t usually change the world or the political party in power. But sometimes the voters in a constituency who go to the polls in this small-scale election can set off a sequence of events that shakes up the political spectrum.

The Conservative Party’s recent victory in the June 24 byelection in Toronto–St. Paul’s – a Liberal stronghold for nearly three decades – is now part of a short list of game-changing federal byelections in the past two decades.

Since that painful defeat, concern has increased several notches among Liberal MPs. Many see their chances of winning a fourth consecutive mandate with Justin Trudeau as leader evaporating.

Behind closed doors, some Liberal MPs are urgently calling for changes to avoid an electoral disaster in the next election, which should take place no later than October 2025.

They believe the prime minister has three options. They say Trudeau must either fundamentally reshuffle his cabinet, replace his inner circle, including chief of staff Katie Telford, or pass the torch to someone else who could revive the government.

For now, Justin Trudeau has been discreet about his game plan to reverse a heavy trend that has been announced for a year in the polls, which give the Conservative Party a lead of between 15 and 20 points. He will have to announce his colours at the latest before his cabinet retreat, scheduled for Halifax, from August 25 to 27.

Clearly, the defeat of Liberal candidate Leslie Church in Toronto–St. Paul’s demonstrates that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s sustained attacks on Justin Trudeau are working, and that even the Liberal stronghold of the Greater Toronto Area is now under threat.

A precursor in the past

In the past, other by-elections have been the first sign that the tectonic plates of Canadian politics were about to shift.

An example? The orange wave that swept through Quebec in the 2011 general election was preceded by an NDP victory in a by-election in Outremont in August 2007. To everyone’s surprise, NDP candidate Thomas Mulcair, who had previously been Quebec’s environment minister in Jean Charest’s government, won in what had until then been a Liberal stronghold.

Mr. Mulcair’s victory instantly gave the NDP a credible voice in Quebec for the first time in its history. Four years later, the New Democrats, then led by the late Jack Layton, made history by winning 43 per cent of the vote in the province, capturing 58 of Quebec’s 75 seats and forming the official opposition in the House of Commons for the first time. Thirteen years later, only one NDP MP remains from that orange wave, Alexandre Boulerice, in the riding of Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie.

Another example is the creation of the Conservative Party, which came into being after the merger of the Progressive Conservative Party and the Canadian Alliance in 2004.

Negotiations between the two parties to end a fratricidal struggle that had favoured the election of a Liberal Party candidate, particularly in Ontario, for a decade took a serious turn after the Progressive Conservative Party caused a surprise by winning a by-election in May 2003 in the riding of Perth–Middlesex, in southern Ontario.

Following the Canadian Alliance candidate’s humiliating third-place defeat, party leader Stephen Harper realized that ending the Liberal reign would be impossible without a merger of the two right-wing parties. “We can’t polish up a load of shit like that,” a close Harper aide told journalist Don Martin about the party’s results at the time.

The arrival of Peter MacKay a few weeks later at the head of the Progressive Conservative Party, who succeeded Joe Clark, who was resistant to any discussion with the Canadian Alliance, allowed serious negotiations to begin. In just a few months, the merger of the two parties was announced. And three years later, in 2006, the new Conservative Party, then led by Stephen Harper, won and formed a minority government.

On Sunday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that by-elections would be held on September 16 in two other ridings, LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in the Montreal area and Elmwood–Transcona in the Winnipeg area. The former is a Liberal stronghold while the latter is an NDP stronghold.

Will voters in these two ridings opt for the status quo or will they surprise the rest of the country by betting on change? One thing is certain: Justin Trudeau cannot afford another defeat in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun after the disastrous results in Toronto–St. Paul’s. Anything less than a victory could force him to pass the torch.