The unemployment rate remained almost stable in the fourth quarter of 2022, at 7.2% of the active population in France (excluding Mayotte) against 7.3% in the third, i.e. a very slight drop compared to the 3rd quarter with 45,000 unemployed less, according to figures published Tuesday by INSEE. It’s been 15 years, since the beginning of 2008, just before the financial crisis, that we haven’t seen such levels in France.
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Despite the surge in energy prices, despite the rise in rates, supply tensions, companies have continued to hire and mainly on permanent contracts, in open-ended contracts, the number of permanent contracts is increasing on the last trimestre. It is also a sign that the labor market remains dynamic: there have also been many new companies, including, of course, self-employed companies. Of course, the government will see the results of its pro-business policy of its last years, with in particular the corporate tax cuts.
No “big resignation”
We can therefore say that there is no “great resignation” in France. And even far from it. If there is perhaps another relationship to work, especially since Covid-19, the number of people in activity remains high: 68%. It has not been this high for 50 years. But, precisely, this questions economists, because, at the same time, growth is sluggish.
This means that there are more workers than before to create as much or even less wealth, or in effect that productivity falls. In practice, this is due to several things. The first: to apprentices. With government aid, we exceeded more than 800,000 contracts signed last year, a record. They largely participate in the reduction of unemployment: they are employees like the others, except that they take a little longer to carry out the missions entrusted to them, compared to more experienced workers. Obviously, too, companies that fear labor shortages are keeping employees in their workforce, even when their order books are falling a little.
Economists remain very cautious for this year 2023, because we are seeing a slowdown in job creation at the end of 2022, according to INSEE. Especially in the service or trade sector. And then, finally, the number of business failures increases. The long-term unemployment rate, of people looking for at least a year, also remains stable.
This year, we will also have to see the effects of the unemployment insurance reform which came into force in February. Will it really push the unemployed to return to work more quickly, as the government hopes? The government which, let us remember, still aims to achieve full employment – 5% – by the end of Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term, in 2027.