This is the worst-case scenario for the macronie, still unthinkable a few weeks ago. The President of the Republic and his supporters may not obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly during the legislative elections on June 12 and 19.
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Polling institutes now estimate that the presidential party and its allies could have fewer deputies than the 289 required. Harris thus gives between 285 and 335 seats for Together, which brings together La République en Marche, the MoDem, Agir and Horizons, the four main components of the presidential majority. Ipsos expects 275 to 315 seats and Ifop between 250 and 290 seats.
What to worry about Emmanuel Macron and his troops? Not really. The main stakeholders are not betting on this scenario. “It is not from our point of view the most probable hypothesis”confides the entourage of the Head of State.
“We consider that the presidential majority will have an absolute majority.”
A relative of Emmanuel Macronat franceinfo
Same story on the side of the candidates in the campaign. “The French are going to give the president this majority, I don’t underestimate the dynamics of Nupes, but I find the projections completely delusional”assures Victor Albrecht, LREM candidate in Yonne. “The polls obscure the personality of the candidates and forget that a large number of En Marche deputies have done field work and are identified by citizens”engages Anne-Laure Cattelot, candidate for re-election in the North.
If the scenario is therefore not favored by the macronie, the fact remains that it must be considered, in view of the latest polls. In the event of a relative majority, the supporters of the Head of State in the Assembly would be forced to find opposition deputies ready to vote on the bills. A situation far from being problematic, according to an adviser to the executive.
“In the event of a relative majority, it will be up to us to gather more widely by seeking the right or the Republican left. And even if it is 30 parliamentarians, we will find them for project majorities.”
An executive adviserat franceinfo
According to this same source, “this will involve more compromise and a little reworking of the appropriate timetable”. Negotiations could thus take longer to rally opposition MPs. An unprecedented situation? “Not at all, it had already happened in 1988explains political scientist Pascal Perrineau. The government of Michel Rocard had not had an absolute majority in the legislative elections and they governed with the contribution of the left or the right. This had led to an enlargement of the government and to negotiations. Not to a blockage.”
For the constitutionalist Jean-Philippe Derosier, however, it would be risky to model the precedent of 1988 on the current situation. “At the time, they had without any limitation Article 49.3 [qui permet au gouvernement de faire passer le texte qu’il présente, sans vote, sous couvert du rejet de la motion de censure qu’un dixième de l’Assemblée se doit de déposer]. However, it is now restricted in its application to certain financial texts or to one text per session.
There is therefore a real risk for the majority of finding themselves in a deadlock situation, in the event of a relative majority, argues Jean-Philippe Derosier.
“It opens up the possibility of a hindered, hobbled government that cannot carry out all the reforms it wants. It makes the need for a government much more negotiating and diplomatic.”
Jean-Philippe Derosier, constitutionalistat franceinfo
“It will be a little more difficult than expected, of course, but I’m not sure that will prevent us from acting”, hopes Damien Adam, LREM deputy for Seine-Maritime, candidate for re-election. For Pascal Perrineau, the situation could also have some advantages. “We would be entering into a real culture of parliamentary compromise and that does not only have faults”assures the political scientist, even if the latter recognizes that to seek “39 deputies [l’hypothèse basse de l’Ifop], it will be very complicated”.
One certainty emerges, however, from the different projections of the institutes: the Nupes will have a large group of deputies and will move the center of gravity of the Assembly much further to the left than during the previous legislature. Within the Nupes, it is the insubordinate France which will win the day and should considerably increase its group of 17 deputies.
Even in the event of an absolute majority, this news of a strong LFI group is of great concern to LREM deputies. “When we see the ability they had to paralyze the National Assembly at 17, I imagine it could be at 50, 60 or 70…” breathes MP Jean-René Cazeneuve, also campaigning for a second term.
“The rebels have a culture of parliamentary guerrillas. If they want to wage war on us for five years, it will be complicated.”
Victor Albrecht, LREM candidate in Yonneat franceinfo
For Fabien Gouttefarde, LREM deputy for Eure, “this will involve ‘muscle’ us in a doctrinal way too”. And the candidate concludes: “If the predictions that we are told are confirmed, it will polarize the debate enormously. There will be sport.”