what will become of Evgueni Prigojine?

An insurrection which stops 200 km from the gates of Moscow in one of the most authoritarian states in the world, the absolute power of Vladimir Putin which falters and a completely grotesque outcome, settled by the Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko negotiating the stop the rebellion. Moscow experienced a scenario as mind-blowing as it was worrying on Saturday June 24. The next day, calm had returned to the country. Wagner’s mercenaries have returned to their garrisons. But many questions remain after this episode of very high tension. In particular, what about the future of the main actor in this sequence: Evgueni Prigojine.

The head of the Wagner militia left Rostov on the night of Saturday to Sunday, acclaimed by his men, greeted by some of the inhabitants. And since radio silence. Monday, June 26, we do not know where he went. Officially he must be a refugee in Belarus, the escape granted to him by the Russian authorities. An agreement guaranteed by the word of Vladimir Putin explained the spokesman of the Kremlin. But we don’t know where Yevgeny Prigojine actually is and his situation appears extremely perilous, because despite the Kremlin’s announcement, the leader of the paramilitary group Wagner is still the subject of a criminal investigation for his aborted rebellion, news agencies report on Monday. Russian press. If it is not the Kremlin, the army and the security services on which he spat for months may not forgive him for his adventure anytime soon. The military or political leaders on whom he seemed to rely to support him in his attempt at rebellion obviously let him down along the way. He is alone today, and the future of his private military company is also uncertain.

Pivotal moment for Wagner’s future

His exile could potentially have enormous consequences because Wagner is the armed wing of the Kremlin’s African policy, present in a dozen countries, notably Mali and the Central African Republic, where Russian mercenaries have replaced all or part of the French military presence. Today the question arises as to how Wagner can still continue to carry out missions on behalf of the Russian state, knowing that Yevgueni Prigojine is also present in Africa because there are financial interests, mining in particular, that he probably has no intention of letting go. We are therefore at a pivotal moment. Evgeuni Prigojine is obviously weakened, but faced with a Russian power now also weakened, the situation is potentially explosive. Saturday’s deal probably didn’t settle anything.