The suspension of the maritime grain corridor, which has allowed 33 million tonnes of grain to leave Ukraine in one year, should have little immediate impact, at a time when the northern hemisphere is harvesting, but will inevitably create tensions and food inflation in the medium term.
Low immediate impact
The situation is very different from that of the end of February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, with the effect of closing the Black Sea to navigation, the main export route for agricultural products from Ukraine.
This country was then the first world exporter of sunflower oil, the fourth for wheat and corn.
The opening of the corridor on 1er August 2022 brought relief to importing countries, particularly in the Mediterranean and Africa, causing world prices to decline, which had reached unprecedented levels in May.
In two years, Ukraine has seen its cereal production almost halve, with forecasts of 25 million tonnes (MT) of maize and 17.5 MT of wheat for 2023-24, compared to 42 MT and 33 MT respectively. in 2021-22, according to the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture.
“In 2023-24, it should export 6 million tonnes of wheat and 10 million tonnes of corn less, compared to the previous campaign”, notes Gautier Le Molgat, analyst at the Agritel cabinet.
The situation is therefore less tense, because there are fewer products to export and because the northern hemisphere is in the middle of the harvest period. “Future needs will become clearer at the end of the harvest. It is a calm period on the markets, which moreover reacted very little to the suspension of the agreement”, the price of wheat increasing by less than 1% on Euronext, specifies Gautier Le Molgat.
In addition, in recent months, “we have observed a bottleneck in the Bosphorus, with very slow traffic”, in particular due to a lower number of Russian inspections on ships using the corridor, notes Edward de Saint -Denis, broker at Plantureux&Associés.
The limits of the terrestrial alternative
Even before the opening of the corridor, the European Union set up the “Solidarity Lanes”, land and river corridors, intended to facilitate Ukrainian exports across Europe.
The Farm Foundation, think tank dedicated to global agricultural issues, estimates that currently half of Ukraine’s exports pass through these channels, notably through Poland and Romania.
“One of the questions that arises is whether the EU, which has recovered 50% of the Ukrainian cereal supply since the start of the conflict, has the capacity to re-export these volumes”, notes Olia Tayeb Cherif, head of studies at Farm.
The EU would like to improve the land offer, in particular with a project to harmonize the rail gauge (rail gauge) at the borders between the EU and Ukraine, but this will take time. “We can increase the pace a little, but we will not solve the problem for the volumes involved,” said Edward de Saint-Denis.
Medium-term concerns
At present, the world does not lack wheat. But, underlines Damien Vercambre, of the firm Inter-Courtage, “most of the exportable wheat is in Russia, with around 12.5 million tonnes of stocks, and it is the cheapest wheat in the world”.
Russia could make up for at least part of the Ukrainian shortage, as could the EU, with a harvest that promises to be very decent. But this would accelerate the dependence of third countries on Moscow and would be difficult to manage in the event of a major climatic accident.
You have to differentiate between corn and wheat. China, which is by far the main beneficiary of the maritime corridor for corn, will be able to turn to Brazil, which is currently selling at a lower price and whose harvest has been record.
The situation is more complex for wheat, a bread cereal. If the volumes exist, the requesting countries can be supplied, but at what price? “A lasting closure of the corridor will have an impact on food inflation, which will affect food security,” underlines Olia Tayeb Cherif, from Farm.
Already, states, such as Egypt recently, are struggling to honor payments for certain tenders.
Moreover, food aid itself could be weakened, because “Ukraine is a supplier to the World Food Programme: approximately 8% of the volumes of Ukrainian wheat exported went to the WFP, destined for countries such as Yemen, Afghanistan and the Horn of Africa”, she underlines.