Ukrainian forces claim advances over several kilometers, particularly around the village of Krynky. Enough to hope to break through the Russian defense in the region?
A breakthrough after several months of stagnation? Ukraine declared on Sunday November 19 that it had pushed back Russian forces to the left bank of the Dnipro River. “Preliminary figures vary from 3 to 8 km, depending on the specificities, geography and topography of the left bank”specified Natalia Goumeniouk, an army spokesperson, on Ukrainian television.
Two days later, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu assured that “all attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to carry out a landing operation in the direction of [la région] of Kherson have failed”. Franceinfo takes stock of these Ukrainian advances and their possible impact, almost twenty-one months after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Islands conquered in a swampy area
According to Natalia Goumeniouk, cited by The worldthe area now held by Ukrainian forces would be around fifty kilometers long and wide “from 3 to 8 km” on the left bank of the Dnipro. For his part, the head of the occupied areas of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, reported“about a company and a half” Ukrainian soldiers present in the village of Krynky, a few dozen kilometers from Kherson.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in its latest update on the war in Ukraine, adds that Ukrainian forces “continued their operations on the left bank of Kherson Oblast on November 20 and visibly advanced.” The research center cites Russian bloggers talking about Ukrainian advances in western Krynky, and continued fighting around the village.
“When the Ukrainians talk about advances in depth, it means that they have taken part of the islands and swamps” along this part of the left bank of the Dnipro, specifies Ulrich Bounat, researcher at the Open Diplomacy Institute, specialist in Central and Eastern Europe.
“It would seem that these various incursions [ukrainiennes] resulted in something more structured. We are no longer simply talking about raids, but about an attempt to settle in with men who remain on site.”
Ulrich Bounat, researcher at the Open Diplomacy Instituteat franceinfo
On Friday, the Ukrainian Navy said on Facebook that “Ukrainian marines, in cooperation with other units of the defense forces, managed to gain a foothold on several bridgeheads”. This term describes the conquered areas within a territory occupied by an enemy force, and which must allow the deployment of troops. “The use of the term is perhaps somewhat premature”tempers Ulrich Bounat. “A beachhead would imply a logistically sound installation. We are more in a preparatory stage for the establishment of beachheads.”
Incursions carried out for several months
As explained The world, The Ukrainian army has regularly crossed the Dnipro River since the liberation of the city of Kherson a year ago. “They come to map the banks and beaches, in particular to determine the position of Russian river mines.”observe international risk consultant Stéphane Audrand in the daily newspaper. These forces often intervene at night to protect themselves from Russian drones and only act for a few hours.
Such incursions have increasingly taken place since June. Ulrich Bounat evokes “essentially raids by special forces, to dislodge the positions of Russian mortars firing on Kherson, and to force the Russians to station a few more men there.”
The world reports that over the past few months, Ukrainian troops have managed to hold on to several positions on the left bank of the Dnipro. The newspaper cites in particular areas at the level of the Antonivsky road and railway bridges, then progressive positions taken up to Krynky.
“Symbolically very important” progress
One of the Ukrainian army’s objectives with these incursions is to further protect civilians on the right bank of the Dnipro from Russian fire, by pushing back Moscow’s forces as much as possible. It is also a question of leading to greater Russian mobilization in this region, which would reduce the pressure on other points of the front line.
The impact of these incursions is of course limited at this stage, analysts point out. “Given the current small size of these beachheads, the likelihood of the Ukrainians having a significant impact on Russian lines of communication or logistics lines is incredibly low”notes analyst Konrad Muzyka in the New York Times.
“If the Ukrainians can actually create beachheads and expand them and transfer equipment, and the Russians back off, then it could get really interesting.”
Ulrich Bounat, researcher at the Open Diplomacy Instituteat franceinfo
If these advances do not change the situation of the conflict for the moment, “They are symbolically very important for Ukrainians who have been weaned from progress and victories for a long time”, underlines the researcher. Announcements of this progress also send a positive signal to Ukraine’s allies, particularly to countries which, like the United States, provide crucial military aid to kyiv.
Decisive progress in the future?
By advancing little by little on the left bank of the Dnipro, could Ukrainian forces prepare for a decisive breakthrough in southern Ukraine, occupied by Russian troops? Two options present themselves “if the Ukrainians manage to gain a foothold on the other side of the Dnipro”analyzes Ulrich Bounat: the prospect of an advance towards annexed Crimea or towards the city of Melitopol.
Whatever the scenario, the task promises to be particularly complex. “The first obstacle is crossing the river. (…) This requires building floating bridges, going deeper”, continues the analyst. Such bridges are exposed to Russian strikes and the marshy environment, in this area of the left bank of the Dnipro, is not easy for military maneuvers, “especially in the fall.”
“What will be the Ukrainian capacity to commit enormous forces? [pour parvenir à ces avancées] ? It’s not very clear. I am not convinced that Ukraine can undertake such a sustained war effort, in terms of men and equipment.”
Ulrich Bounat, researcher at the Open Diplomacy Instituteat franceinfo
In the New York Times, Konrad Muzyka judges that the Ukrainian forces “just aren’t” not able to get closer to Crimea. The objective of kyiv’s troops could be to maintain and consolidate these bridgeheads near Kherson, “then extend them where possible”, continues the analyst. Before, potentially, further progress next year.