Despite a vaccination rate, at two doses, approaching 90% of eligible people as of December 23, according to Public Health France, the progression of the Omicron variant, more contagious than the other variants of Covid-19, greatly worries the health authorities. On December 19, it would have represented more than 10% of the cases detected and sequenced, and it could become the majority in January. During a press conference, Thursday, December 23, the Scientific Council took stock of what we know about this variant.
Soon hundreds of contaminations
Due to its many mutations, the Omicron variant has a higher potential for airborne contamination than previous strains. Thus, the number of cases linked to the Omicron variant doubles every two to three days. It is already in the majority in Île-de-France, with in particular a strong increase in the incidence rate among 20-30 year olds. Scientific authorities are certain that the Omicron variant will become the majority in the coming days in France.
The Scientific Council specifies, however, that even if the Omicron variant will be responsible for hundreds of thousands of contaminations, most of them will be mild cases, or even asymptomatic. Serious cases will be limited, for the vast majority, to the unvaccinated and the most fragile people.
Less risk of hospitalizations than Delta
On December 22, three studies from the United Kingdom and South Africa provided rather reassuring information. They indicate that the risks of hospitalization are reduced with Omicron, compared to the Delta variant. This reduction in the risk of hospitalizations varies between -30 and -80%, depending on the study.
In the field, doctors suggest that with Omicron, hospitalized people need less resuscitation oxygen than with the Delta variant.
On the other hand, with a more contagious virus, there is a risk of mathematically more severe cases than in previous waves. Because of this, the members of the Scientific Council stress the importance of vaccination with the booster dose. Even if it takes 20 to 30 times more antibodies to defend against Omicron, with three doses, our antibody level is sufficient to fight against this variant, according to virologist Bruno Lina.
A “disorganization of social life”
Due to the rapidity of contamination, the issue of isolating positive cases and contact cases, and the resulting absenteeism in companies will pose a problem, particularly in the key sectors of health, transport, Education and daily services. The Scientific Council is therefore concerned about a “disorganization of social life”.
The rules of isolation will become an essential subject, warns the Scientific Council, which recommends by then to use all the tools available: vaccination with three doses, but also vaccination against influenza, tests, wearing a mask and reducing social contact, especially at parties. A 10-20% reduction in social contact may be enough to influence the height of the wave.