A report to judge the Freedom Convoy
Between now and February 20, Commissioner Paul Rouleau will have to answer a politically charged question: was the federal government justified in invoking the Emergency Measures Act for the first time? This exceptional law applied for nine days in February 2022 to put down a movement of opposition to sanitary measures which disrupted downtown Ottawa as well as certain border points with the United States. In addition to residents, protesters and police, the public inquiry heard from public servants, numerous politicians (except those from Queen’s Park) and even Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. His government would be embarrassed if Judge Rouleau did not detect any threat to national security. Otherwise, public agencies, primarily the Ottawa Police, risk further humiliation.
The beginning of the end between the PLC and the NPD?
The agreement reached between the government of Justin Trudeau and the NDP is only nine months old and, already, Jagmeet Singh has twice threatened to terminate it. It is unlikely that he will actually do so this year, with collaboration going well between the parties behind the scenes. Under the agreement, the Liberals must in 2023 expand their dental insurance to teenagers, the elderly and those living with disabilities; enshrine in law the bases of drug insurance; and introduce scab legislation. Even if the formal support agreement ended, the minority government could stay in the saddle by seeking the support of the NDP or the Bloc Québécois on a case-by-case basis (that of the Conservatives is more complicated). Mr. Trudeau assured, in an interview with TVA, that he has no intention of calling an election himself this year.
Purge banned content from the web
The Trudeau government intends to table in 2023 its last and most controversial part of the regulation of the Internet. The Liberals have been showing for years their intention to force social networks to hunt for illegal content, such as child pornography or hate speech. An early bill died at the call of a federal election, and the government failed to deliver on its promise to tackle “online hate” within 100 days of the new term. The plan, renamed “online security”, divided the group of experts appointed by Ottawa. In addition, the other two Liberal Internet laws — broadcasting (C-11) and media revenue (C-18) — have yet to make it through the Senate. Freedom of expression is already on the lips of critics of the entire work.
Return to (almost) calm in Alberta
Danielle Smith has chained the blunders and relentlessly challenged Ottawa, since her election as head of the Conservative Party and the government of Alberta. But his reign could be short-lived. Rachel Notley’s NDP enjoys a slight lead in the polls, five months before the provincial election scheduled for the end of May. The Sovereignty Act of Mr.me Smith — who seeks to exempt the province from any federal law that does not suit him — as well as his remarks describing the non-vaccinated as “most discriminated against” or comparing the fate reserved for Alberta by Ottawa to that suffered by the First Nations are went down so badly with the electorate. Justin Trudeau could find a slight lull in a slightly less combative Rachel Notley. Pierre Poilievre risks monitoring the reception reserved for the populism of Danielle Smith.
Will Laurentian University be reborn?
Laurentian University Board of Governors Chairman Jeff Bangs promises a revival of the Northern Ontario institution. “The return is always stronger than the decline,” he said in November. The institution hit rock bottom in 2021. Its court-supervised restructuring and the layoff of 116 professors earned it the worst reputation in the country among Canadian universities that year, according to the magazine Maclean’s. Secondary students responded to the scandal by ignoring the establishment. Newly appointed presidents and vice-presidents will be responsible for developing a new strategic plan and responding to the recommendations of the Auditor General of Ontario. Ontarians’ confidence in the institution, and thus its renewed popularity, may depend on the implementation of the plan and compliance with the recommendations.
Watch out for the economic downturn
Obviously no one has a crystal ball. Not even the experts. But for now, their economic forecast for 2023 generally swings between a period of anemic growth and a modest, short-lived recession. It will be the fault of the war against inflation waged by central banks by raising interest rates, the energy crisis in Europe and the COVID-19 pandemic in China. But it will be mainly because of the effect of rising interest rates in Canada on its consumers and its real estate sector. The shock should be reduced because the economy is relatively strong and the labor shortage will make employers hesitate when considering layoffs. These mitigating factors should be even more present in Quebec.
Year-end interest rate cuts?
After allowing itself to be surprised by runaway inflation, the Bank of Canada responded last year by raising its interest rates by 4 percentage points, something unheard of in such a short time. Although this blow to consumers and businesses seems slowly on its way to bringing price increases back to a less frenzied pace, there may be one last small rate hike coming soon, before we let this monetary tightening happen. desired effect, experts predict. As this will weigh on economic activity (see “Beware of the slowdown”), the central bank could start to reverse course as soon as the end of the year, en route to a policy rate at a more neutral level of 2% to 3% , compared to 4.25% today. But that will wait until 2024, more and more forecasters believe.
A judgment about Indigenous DYPs
Another constitutional dispute between Quebec and Ottawa has emerged in recent years over a federal law designed to facilitate the creation, by Aboriginal people, of their own version of the DYP. At the heart of this standoff is reconciliation with the First Peoples and their right to self-government. This law imposes “national standards” on the provinces for the services offered to Aboriginal people, but Quebec does not want to be told what to do by Papa Ottawa. The federal government believes that the Constitution allows it to legislate for Aboriginal people. But not on social services, which are under provincial jurisdiction, retorts Quebec, which challenged – for this reason and others – the law even before the Supreme Court of Canada. His judgment is expected in 2023.