The presidential and legislative elections gathered a very large electorate on Sunday in this country led for 20 years by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose future could finally be decided in a second round on May 28.
Turkey does not yet know its next president. In the aftermath of an election which saw an unprecedented mobilization of the electorate, Sunday May 14, the outgoing head of state, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and his main rival, the progressive Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, are heading, on Monday, towards an unprecedented second round in the history of the Turkish Republic.
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At 9 a.m. (Paris time), the official Anadolu agency attributed 49.42% of the votes to the outgoing “reis” and 44.95% to the leader of the opposition, after counting 99.37% of the ballots . At the same time, the independent agency Anka granted 49.25% of the vote to Recep Tayyip Erdogan and 45.05% to Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, after counting 99.83% of the votes. Here is what we can remember from this first round which has so far took place without significant incident.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan resists
Despite the economic crisis in Turkey and unfavorable polls, the outgoing president continues to be supported by a large part of the electorate. At the start of the evening, Sunday, he was even credited with a comfortable lead by the Anadolu agency with 54.3% of the vote, enough to potentially offer him a victory in the first round. This lead, however, melted over the hours, dropping below 50% before midnight. In the middle of the night, the 69-year-old head of state said to himself “clearly in mind”.
“The people chose stability and security in this presidential election.”
Recep Tayyip Erdoganin front of his supporters in Ankara, at night
Despite a participation rate estimated by the Anka agency at 89%, the Social Democrat Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, at the head of an unprecedented coalition of six opposition parties, has not yet won his bet to bring together a majority voters behind him. “We are in the lead”, However, this 74-year-old former senior official said in the evening. One of his allies, the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, called “citizens to disregard the figures given by Anadolu” in the early hours of the count.
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According to the maps of Anadolu and Anka showing the almost final results, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu would come out on top in the western and southern coastal areas of the country, from Istanbul to Mersin, via Izmir, Bodrum and Antalya, as well as in a large part of the Kurdish areas in the East. Recep Tayyip Erdogan would win in almost all the rest of the country, with the notable exception of the capital Ankara. It would be the majority in the areas most affected by the February earthquakes, near the Syrian border.
Towards an unprecedented and disputed second round
The two main contenders both say they can win in a possible second round, which is due to take place on May 28. This ballotage is already, in itself, a setback for Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It is the first time since his accession to the Turkish presidency in 2014 that the head of state has been forced into such a scenario. In 2018, during the last presidential election, the Islamo-conservative autocrat won in the first round with more than 52.5% of the vote. “If the people take us to the second round, we will respect it”he promised, in the night, in front of his supporters, saying he was convinced “to serve his country for another five years”.
Shortly after, his rival also displayed his optimism. “If our nation asks for a second round, we gladly accept it. And we will absolutely win this second round”he launched from Ankara, surrounded by representatives of the six parties of his coalition. “The need for change in society is over 50%. We absolutely must win and install democracy in this country”he hammered.
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The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, could play the kingmaker. This dissident of the nationalist party MHP, a far-right formation close to the power in place, was credited, Monday morning, with around 5.25% of the vote. “We are going to have 15 difficult days ahead of us in the event of a second round”he warned, Sunday evening, refusing to say which candidate he would support.
The presidential bloc leads the legislative elections
The 64 million voters called to vote in Turkey on Sunday were also to designate the 600 deputies who will sit in the unicameral parliament of Ankara. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has, for the time being, claimed the “majority” for the National Alliance he formed between his party, the AKP, and small nationalist and Islamist parties. At 9 a.m. (Paris time), the Anadolu agency granted 49.34% of the votes to this presidential bloc, including the MHP, on the basis of 98.96% of the ballots counted. The Anka agency attributed 49.86% of the votes to the four formations of the Alliance.
The legislative elections are proportional and make it possible to form the Grand National Assembly, a parliament with a role eclipsed by the strong presidential regime put in place by the constitutional reform of 2017. The bloc formed by the AKP of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his allies of the MHP currently holds the majority. The opposition aimed to take it away from him, or even to obtain the two-thirds majority required to modify the Constitution.