It’s a historic comeback. In Brazil, the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the second round of the presidential election on Sunday October 30, ahead of his rival Jair Bolsonaro by 1.8 points. The figure of the Brazilian left won 50.9% of the vote, while the outgoing far-right president won 49.1% of the vote, according to the final results of the Superior Electoral Court*.
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The results, very tight, paint the portrait of a Brazil more polarized than ever. Acclaimed by an impressive red tide of hundreds of thousands of supporters in Sao Paulo, Lula advocated the “peace and unity”. However, he said “worried” of the silence of his adversary, who has still not recognized his defeat. Here is what to remember from the results of the second round, where more than 156 million voters were called to the polls.
Tight results
Lula’s narrow lead was predicted by the polls, but held in breath the support of the president-elect throughout the evening. At 77, the former head of state is back in power, thanks in particular to his victory in the key state of Minas Gerais, located in the south of the country, with 50.1% of the vote. The final results, published shortly before midnight (Paris time), caused a wave of relief among Lula’s supporters, gathered in the streets of major cities, particularly in Rio and Sao Paulo.
Finally, thehe gap is the tightest between two presidential finalists since the return to democracy after the military dictatorship in 1985. “It was really the dreaded scenariocomments Christophe Ventura, research director at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris) and specialist in the subject. The two candidates finish neck and neck, with only two million votes apart. It shows how fractured the country is.”
“Retarded” Voters
If no violent incident tainted the ballot, the second round was marked by a controversy around the filtering barriers of the Federal Road Police which retained the voters. Supporters of Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) denounced during the day checks carried out in rural areas in the north-east of the country, stronghold of the former left-wing president. According to the daily Folha de Sao Paulo*, more than 500 filter dams aimed at controlling coaches had been recorded by midday across the country, 70% more than in the first round.
The NGO Human Rights Watch had expressed in a press release its “great concern”while the hashtag #Deixeonordestevotar (#Laissezlenordestvoter) has gone viral on social networks. The President of the Superior Electoral Court, seized of the question, finally announced the lifting of operations at the end of the day, explaining that the operations “had delayed the arrival of voters”while refusing to shift the closing time of the polling stations.
A unifying speech by Lula
Lula advocated “peace and unity” during his victory speech delivered from a hotel in Sao Paulo. “There are not two Brazils, we are one people, one nation”said the winner of the presidential election, who explained that he wanted to govern for the “215 million Brazilian men and women, not just those who voted for me”. A unifying speech, while the country is particularly divided after a violent campaign and four years of populist remarks and invective from Jair Bolsonaro.
“It was important that he speak in this tone, so as not to polarize things more”explains Frédéric Louault, co-director of the Center for the Study of the Americas at the Free University of Brussels.
“It was also a speech directed towards his opponents, with whom he will have to negotiate.”
Frédéric Louault, Brazil specialistat franceinfo
It must be said that Lula does not have a majority in Congress. “The political landscape is very fragmented, around twenty parties share the seats, which will make negotiations complex”, adds Christophe Ventura. An exercise known to the elected president, who “was backed by a very broad spectrum, including centre-right politicians”.
After asserting that Brazil was “back” on the international scene, Lula also spoke about the environment, while deforestation and fires increased sharply under the mandate of Jair Bolsonaro. “Brazil is ready to play a leading role again in the fight against climate change. Brazil and the planet need a living Amazon”he launched.
The heavy silence of Jair Bolsonaro
If several of the outgoing president’s allies have recognized Lula’s victory, Jair Bolsonaro has so far remained silent. The lights of the Alvorada Palace went out early Sunday evening and according to the daily O Globo*, the defeated president would have refused any visit after the result and would have gone to bed. The 67-year-old leader had hinted during the campaign that he might not respect the results of the ballot, raising fears among observers of a situation similar to the capture of the Capitol in Washington in the United States. He even had, as recalled by the New York Times*, affirmed that he envisaged only three outcomes in this presidential election: “win, be killed or be arrested”.
The only outgoing president to be beaten at the ballot box since the establishment of the Republic in 1985, Jair Bolsonaro can however boast of seeing his movement take root. “He just lost the presidential election, but bolsonarism has never been so strong in this countryhighlighted Christopher Ventura. He now controls 14 states against 13 for Lula and he has elected many deputies to Congress. Jair Bolsonaro’s allies also won gubernatorial elections held on Sunday. This is in particular the case of Tarcisio de Freitas in the state of Sao Paulo, the most populous and rich in the country.
In four years, “he structured his political movement, which shifted all the campaign debate to the right and largely controlled the electoral agenda, forcing Lula to moderate his positions”adds Frederic Louault. At the center of the political game, Jair Bolsonaro must now “make a choice between contesting the elections or capitalizing and becoming Lula’s main opponent”according to Christophe Ventura.
* Links marked with an asterisk refer to articles in English.