At the end of tighter elections than what the polls anticipated, the right wins by a short margin. The parties will begin negotiations to try to avoid a return to the polls.
The right tidal wave did not occur. No absolute majority emerges the day after the early legislative elections in Spain, Monday, July 24. Conservative Alberto Núñez Feijóo managed to secure a narrow lead over his socialist rival, Pedro Sanchez, with 136 seats against 122 for the leader on the left. It was necessary to obtain 176 to obtain an absolute majority.
Thwarting all the polls, which had been showing him largely beaten for months, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez could however stay in power, thanks to the game of alliances. On his side, Alberto Núñez Feijóo called on the socialists not to “to block” the formation of a right-wing government. Negotiations will take place to try to avoid new elections. Here is what to remember from this very close vote.
Against all expectations, the right does not obtain an absolute majority
“Thank you to the 8 million Spaniards who have given us their support”, welcomed Alberto Núñez Feijóo, 61, leader of the Popular Party (PP) on Twitter. After counting 99% of the ballots, the conservative narrowly obtained the majority in the legislative elections, with 33.05% of the votes, or 136 seats out of a total of 350 in the Congress of Deputies, according to the count ofEl País. The PP therefore wins 47 more seats than in the previous elections, in 2019, but is far from the 150 seats it was aiming for. Taking into account the results of the far-right Vox party, an ally of the PP, which won 33 seats, the right-wing bloc totals only 169 seats while the absolute majority is set at 176.
However, the polls carried out over the past five days all predicted a large victory for the PP, and even the possibility of an absolute majority with the support of Vox.
El @ppopular ha ganado las elecciones generales.
Gracias a los más de 8 million de españoles que nos han dado su apoyo.
Quiero formar Gobierno y voy a iniciar diálogo con el resto de partidos.
Pido responsabilidad para que España no sufra blocos. pic.twitter.com/lgWHUHRQdz
— Alberto Núñez Feijóo (@NunezFeijoo) July 23, 2023
Alberto Nunez Feijoo probably paid for his ambiguous strategy vis-à-vis the far right, but also a series of blunders that marked the end of his campaign. In particular, he made a mistake during a television interview on the question of pensions, by maintaining that the PP when in power had always increased them by a percentage equal to inflation. A false statement, reminds El País.
He then decided to boycott, two days later, the last televised debate between the main candidates, leaving the field open to Pedro Sánchez and his communist ally Yolanda Díaz, who took the opportunity to deliver a full assault against him, without him obviously being able to defend himself.
Despite these results below expectations, Alberto Núñez Feijóo still intends to form a government. But for that, he will need the abstention of the Socialists during a vote of investiture in Parliament. However, the Socialists have already made it known that they do not intend to abstain. “Our obligation now is to prevent a period of uncertainty from opening in Spain”launched the boss of the PP from the balcony of his party’s headquarters, calling for the “responsibility” so that Spain does not experience a deadlock situation.
The Socialist Party creates the surprise and hopes to stay in power
“The retrograde bloc of the People’s Party and Vox has been defeated. Many more of us want Spain to keep moving forward and so it will be”, launched Pedro Sánchez when the results were announced. In front of militants shouting “No pasarán” (“They will not pass !”), famous anti-fascist slogan of the civil war (1936-1939), the secretary general of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) claimed his ability to continue to lead Spain.
España ha sido meridiana y rotundamente clara.
El block involucionista, of retroceso, that planted the derogation of los logrados advances estos cuatro años ha fracasado.
Somos muchos más los que queremos que España siga avanzando.
Muchas gracias a todos ya todas. pic.twitter.com/3ztlnGHAyo
— Pedro Sanchez (@sanchezcastejon) July 23, 2023
The PSOE obtained 31.7% of the vote, that is to say 122 seats of deputies. With its radical left ally Sumar, who won 31 seats, the left bloc has 153 deputies. Even if this result is lower than that of the right-wing bloc (169 seats), Pedro Sánchez is paradoxically in a better position than his conservative rival, because he has the possibility of obtaining the support of Basque and Catalan parties, such as the Catalans of ERC or the Basques of Bildu, for whom Vox is a scarecrow.
However, the Socialists will also have to ensure the abstention in Congress of the Catalan separatist Carles Puigdemont’s party, Junts per Catalunya (JxCat), whose leaders have already warned that they would not help Pedro Sánchez to stay in power without compensation. Carles Puigdemont is, in fact, wanted by the Spanish courts for his role in the attempted secession of Catalonia in 2017, recalls France 24, and has been a refugee in Belgium for six years.
If he manages to convince the regional parties, Pedro Sánchez could gather on his behalf 172 deputies, more than the leader of the PP, which would be enough for him during a second vote of investiture by Parliament, where only a simple majority is required. Otherwise, Spain, which has already experienced four general elections between 2015 and 2019, would find itself in a situation of political deadlock and would be condemned to organize a new election.
Increased participation, especially abroad
After the rout of the left in the local elections of May 28, Pedro Sánchez had called this early ballot to regain control. Campaigning on his balance sheet, which is rather positive in economic matters, he above all stirred up fear of the far right in an attempt to mobilize the electorate frightened by Vox’s entry into government. A strategy that seems to have paid off, since turnout reached nearly 70%, or 3.5 points more than in the last election, in November 2019.
These elections have generated unusual interest abroad. Nearly 2.5 million Spaniards voted by post in particular, a record figure due to the fact that this election was the first to be organized in the middle of summer. The possibility of a PP/Vox coalition coming to power in a country considered a pioneer in terms of women’s rights or those of the LGBTQIA+ community has been a scarecrow.
Very close to the positions of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Vox particularly rejects the existence of gender-based violence, criticizes the “climate fanaticism” and is very openly anti-LGBT and anti-abortion. His accession to office would mark the return to power of the far right in Spain for the first time since the end of the Franco dictatorship in 1975, almost half a century ago.