Heavyweight defeat. Renewed support of the Progressive Conservatives among Francophones. Following Thursday’s election that returned Doug Ford to power, it is a Franco-Ontarian political class with a somewhat different face that will soon present itself at Queen’s Park. Overview of changes and issues to watch out for.
Two weeks before polling day, signs were already suggesting that the tide had turned among the Conservatives. Four years after making cuts to French-language services, their leader Doug Ford was the most popular among Franco-Ontarians according to a Radio-Canada poll. The cancellation of the Université de l’Ontario français project and the elimination of the French Language Services Commissioner mobilized the “connected community”, but the impact of these measures on the lives of Franco-Ontarians was “abstract”. , observes historian Serge Dupuis.
Thursday night, the Conservatives wrested two Franco-Ontarian ridings from the Liberals and the New Democratic Party (NDP). In the east of the province, Liberal Critic for Francophone Affairs Amanda Simard, who left the Conservative caucus in 2018 due to cuts, lost her re-election in the riding of Glengarry — Prescott — Russell to Conservative Stéphane Buckwheat. In the North, in Timmins, where the Conservatives recruited Mayor George Pirie, the Blues ousted New Democrat Gilles Bisson, in office for 32 years.
The Conservatives made these breakthroughs without a platform focused on Francophone issues, like their opponents. “The campaign was made on a balance sheet, not on the future,” noted political scientist Stéphanie Chouinard, of the Royal Military College in Kingston. “Doug Ford has done more for francophones than the Liberals have done in 15 years,” we heard from the Minister of Francophone Affairs, Caroline Mulroney, during the French debate of the province.
According to Stéphanie Chouinard, “urgent” files still await the Conservatives. This is particularly the case with the project at the University of Sudbury, a francophone post-secondary institution that wishes to become independent. The curators have not yet funded the project, preferring to wait for an independent assessment of the university’s capacity to offer programs. “If the file does not succeed, there will be repercussions”, analyzes the political scientist.
Opposition weakened
It is the NDP, whose leader Andrea Horwath resigned on election night, and its Nickel Belt MP France Gélinas who will probably hold the government to account most often in the matter. The university is in the member’s backyard in Sudbury. She will team up again with Guy Bourgouin, spokesperson for the Francophonie during the last legislature. “They are two strong heads,” suggests Stéphanie Chouinard.
Guy Bourgouin, who represents the riding of Mushkegowuk — James Bay, expects a dynamic at Queen’s Park similar to that seen over the past four years. An “arrogant” Conservative party that is “listening to no one”, he mentions on the phone. “We will try to build relationships with the ministries, try to find solutions,” he continues.
Liberal MP Lucille Collard, re-elected in Ottawa — Vanier, says she wants to continue doing “positive politics”. “I haven’t gotten to the point of being cynical yet,” she says. However, she will face great obstacles in her efforts. Its leader, Steven Del Duca, also resigned on election night and his party did not obtain official party status – as it had since 2018 – since it elected only eight deputies. This means in particular that the Liberal members will have less right to speak in the chamber.
Lucille Collard believes that her party was still able to work with the government. If the Conservatives modernized the French Language Services Act in November 2021, it is partly because of the upstream work of the Liberals, who “fed the reflection”. “They were probably inspired by us. I consider it a gain,” she said.
However, the Liberal Party had not changed the 30-year-old law in any significant way during their 15-year reign, from 2003 to 2018. In opposition, in 2021, the party proposed a new version, but the one -it was not adopted. “It’s okay for the Conservatives to take the credit,” says Lucille Collard.
New minister?
The collaborative work of the opposition will also inevitably pass through the next Minister of Francophone Affairs. It is Caroline Mulroney who holds this portfolio, in addition to that of Transport, an file which is likely to keep her schedule busy: several of her party’s promises during the campaign concerned the construction of roads. The department could be very politicized.
Could she be replaced? His parliamentary assistant Natalia Kusendova is being sued by her ex-spouse and the two new Franco-Ontarian MPs — Andrew Dowie and Stéphane Sarrazin — have no experience in provincial politics. “It’s a minor ministry, but it has explosive potential,” observes Stéphanie Chouinard. The bet of giving the wallet to a neophyte is “perhaps risky”, she says.
The parties say they are ready to work with this person, whoever he is. “I hope that I will have a listening”, affirms Lucille Collard. “I don’t know who will be at the ministry, but we will definitely have to work with this person,” notes Guy Bourgouin. He could approach and talk to Caroline Mulroney, he says. “Other ministers, it’s much more difficult,” he said.
This story is supported by the Local Journalism Initiative, funded by the Government of Canada.