what the 61 billion American aid granted to kyiv could change

A decisive vote. After long and laborious negotiations, the American House of Representatives adopted on Saturday April 20 a huge aid plan for Ukraine of 61 billion dollars (57 billion euros). That “will prevent the war from spreading” And “will save thousands and thousands of lives”, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky quickly reacted. Conversely, the spokesperson for the Russian presidency affirmed that this decision would kill “even more Ukrainians because of the kyiv regime”.

The relief expressed by kyiv and its allies matches the urgency felt on the front line. “The situation in Ukraine was becoming extremely difficult, it was a matter of weeks”explains to franceinfo General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of National Defense Magazine. The funds could arrive quickly on the ground, since the aid plan must be examined Tuesday by the US Senate, before arriving on Joe Biden’s desk for a final signature. The president’s spokesperson also clarified that the flow of American aid to Ukraine would resume “immediately” after the adoption of this text by both houses of Congress. “The US military has already stated that it is ready for transfers to begin very quickly, since this aid has been on the table for months”, confirms military historian Cédric Mas on franceinfo. Here is what this American aid could change on the ground.

Deliveries of new ammunition

The $61 billion aid plan contains mainly military and economic assistance, although it also authorizes Joe Biden to confiscate and sell Russian assets to be used to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. “Part of this aid actually corresponds to purchases on American soil from American manufacturers for the American army, which will be able to replenish its stocks and get rid of older equipment”, explains Cédric Mas. In detail, 23 billion dollars will be used by the American army to replace the American weapons and stocks which go to Ukraine and 27.1 billion will finance the purchase of weapons by kyiv, details the Ukrainian media Hromadske. Nearly 10 billion are also allocated for non-military aid.

The list of equipment sent by the United States has not yet been revealed, but the Ukrainian army should not expect to quickly receive thousands of combat planes. “Shells, ammunition, long-range missiles, anti-aircraft defense missiles will arrive,” lists political scientist and historian specializing in the United States Nicole Bacharan on franceinfo. “This will mainly be stocks of artillery ammunition, which the Ukrainians lacked to face Russian attacks, explains Cédric Mas. Certain batteries, certain cannons could only fire five or six rounds each day.”

For General Jérôme Pellistrandi, the sending of equipment is urgent for Ukraine in two areas, “artillery munitions, including Himars rocket launchers which allow deep firing, and of course everything related to ground-to-air defense.” Unlike Israel and its famous and effective “Iron Dome”, Ukrainian territory is difficult to defend against air attacks, particularly due to its size. The Russians have continued to increase such offensives in recent weeks, like the deadly strike on Wednesday which left 18 dead in Chernihiv.

A hope to hold the front line

The new munitions are crucial for the Ukrainian army. “The objective is to allow the Ukrainians to hold on. They are not able to relaunch a land offensive, but we must give them the means to defend themselves so that the Russians do not break through the front line”, analyzes General Jérôme Pellistrandi. These last weeks, “Russia tried to take advantage of what is called a window of vulnerability” on the front line, recalls Cédric Mas, in particular because of the blocking of American aid and the “diversion of part of Western aid to Israel from October 7”.

“The operations and attacks are incessant on the part of the Russians (…), it is real carnage on both sides.”

Cédric Mas, military historian

on franceinfo

“There are Russian advances of a few hundred meters every 2-3 days, at a high price.”observes Cédric Mas again, “but no decisive breakthrough, no decisive upheaval of the front.” The specialist in Defense issues, however, mentions significant losses for Russian troops.

“It’s a nibble, but the problem is that this nibble is exhausting the Ukrainian army”, observes General Jérôme Pellistrandi for his part. According to him, after its failure last summer, Volodymyr Zelensky’s troops will not be able to launch a new counter-offensive before 2025. “Ukraine does not have sufficient human resources to form battalions capable of going on the offensive”, he believes. For Cédric Mas, the arrival of new munitions will still allow the Ukrainian general staff to “perhaps take more risks on the front, because, until then, each time he was in a difficult situation, he preferred to give up ground”.

A significant psychological impact

The aid vote by the US Congress “changes everything in your head”assures Cédric Mas. “War is also a matter of morale. Today, Ukrainians have a perspective. Their resistance has a prospect of overthrow.” That “will improve morale for the Ukrainians”agrees Jérôme Pellistrandi. “For kyiv, it is a political and moral victory. The representatives of the Republican Party have recovered a little, realizing that the fall of Ukraine would be a huge blow to the credibility of the United States.”

“It is also a signal sent to Moscow: there is no question of abandoning Ukraine.”

General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of “Revue Défense nationale”

at franceinfo

“There is this clarification among the American political class, supported by a majority of public opinion, that America is not abandoning democracies, and has understood that Russia is a threat to Europe and to the rest of the world. world”analyzes political scientist Nicole Bacharan. “This is very bad news for Putin”And “immediately, it’s rather favorable to Joe Biden”she believes.

A message of support to Europeans

“This vote is also a message sent to Europeans to reassure them in their support for Ukraine”estimates General Jérôme Pellistrandi. “Europeans should not say to themselves: ‘It’s okay, we no longer have to make any more efforts. But I think there is a real awareness”he adds.

The EU already agreed at the beginning of February on aid of 50 billion euros to kyiv (33 billion in loans and 17 billion in donations), included in an extension to the EU budget until 2027. “The aid is substantial and continues to grow”confirms Jérôme Pellistrandi.

EU leaders widely welcomed the approval of aid to Ukraine. “This sends a clear message to the Kremlin”reacted the President of the European Council Charles Michel on. This represents “a decisive turning point”, also estimated the head of Italian diplomacy, Antonio Tajani. But Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was more circumspect. This fervent defender of the Ukrainian ally thanked on the United States, while emphasizing the delay in the adoption of this assistance plan. “Better late than too late. And I hope it is not too late for Ukraine.”