While Hamas released two American hostages on Saturday, October 21, several countries, such as France and Thailand, are still awaiting the fate of their nationals. While some can negotiate on their own, others rely on third countries to play the role of mediator.
Thailand is a country of modest geopolitical size, unaccustomed to finding itself at the heart of international crises of this magnitude. The Thai government is making efforts to negotiate the release of 19 hostages held in the Gaza Strip. The country is banking on its neutrality in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and rapprochement with certain influential Muslim countries in the region such as Iran.
The Iranian ambassador to Thailand also affirmed that Iranian President Ebrahim Raïsi had met Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh a few days ago in Qatar. He has already given his agreement to release the Thai and Filipino hostages. “Efforts are being made, but the problem is that they cannot get them out of Gaza. Every time they try to move hostages they are bombed, it is time for the Thai government and people around the world to demand that the government of Israel stop the genocide in Palestine to allow the hostages to be return home safely,” saidSeyed Reza Nobakhti, the Iranian ambassador to Thailand.
Thailand also counts on the support of Arab countries
The Thai Prime Minister has just returned from Saudi Arabia, a country with which Thailand had ceased all diplomatic relations for almost thirty years because of a stolen diamond affair, and with which it has just resumed political relations then 2022 in addition to significant economic cooperation. Saudi Arabia has opened its airspace to the national airline Thai Airways and the country’s authorities assure that they will do everything in their power to free the Thai hostages.
The key point of Thai strategy is therefore to keep as neutral a position as possible, unlike the approach of Western countries. She did not in fact condemn the Hamas attacks, and did not declare her support for Israel. The Thai prime minister carefully avoids any political statements on the conflict and says that personal connections will be used to get the hostages out and emphasizes the ultra-confidential aspect of these negotiations.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a privileged contact of Hamas
Turkey makes no secret of the fact that it has long had good relations with the political branch of the Palestinian Islamist movement, which it does not consider to be a terrorist group. Hamas also has offices and representatives in the country.
From the start of the clashes, Turkey announced that it was discussing the issue of civilian hostages and their release with Hamas. These are contacts at all levels, including at the highest level since again this weekend, President Erdoğan had a telephone exchange with Ismaïl Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas political bureau. The press release from the Turkish presidency did not mention the question of hostages, but we suspect that the subject was discussed.
Turkey, an intermediary for the Western world
On October 15, the American daily The Wall Street Journal claimed that several countries had contacted Turkey to try to identify and free their nationals detained by Hamas. This information was then confirmed by Hakan Fidan, the head of Turkish diplomacy, who also played a key role in the development of ties with Hamas during the time he headed the Turkish intelligence services. The German Minister of Foreign Affairs also mentioned this role of intermediary with Hamas in Turkey, but also with Egypt, to free the hostages.
Ankara highlights its past role in prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine, while knowing that the current situation is very different. She also knows that if she manages to play a role in the release of several Israeli and foreign civilians, it will lend credence to her offer to mediate between Israel and Hamas. However, Turkey’s increasingly harsh tone towards Israel does not place it in a favorite position for possible mediation.