What projects await the new Prime Minister in the coming weeks?

Having just arrived at Matignon, the head of government must choose his ministerial team and tackle projects put on hold since the dissolution, such as the presentation of the budget.

Time is running out. This is what the new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, suggested on Thursday, September 5, during the handover of power with his predecessor Gabriel Attal, a few hours after his appointment to Matignon by Emmanuel Macron.

“At work”, he declared at the end of his speech. Composition of the government, urgent files, censorship to avoid… Franceinfo explains what awaits Michel Barnier in the coming weeks.

Form a government

Just appointed to Matignon, where he promised “changes and ruptures”the new Prime Minister must first tackle the formation of a government team. A reflection that can take several days, even several weeks. Michel Barnier’s predecessor, Gabriel Attal, for example, announced the names of the ministers in his government two days after his appointment as Prime Minister in January. The complete composition of the government – ​​including junior ministers and secretaries of state – was confirmed a month later.

While the National Assembly is fragmented with three major forces present, Michel Barnier, tasked by Emmanuel Macron with “to form a unifying government to serve the country” according to a press release from the Elysée, will have to find the right balances. Otherwise, he runs the risk of being censored by the deputies.

On Friday, the Savoyard received Gabriel Attal, now president of the Ensemble pour la République group in the National Assembly, at 9 am. At 10:15 am, he was to meet with the leaders of his own party, Les Républicains, to examine the conditions for participation in his future team.

Pending the composition of the new government, theThe resigning ministers remain in office to manage current affairs. Ministers who can also be recalled by Michel Barnier. Especially since some, like Gérald Darmanin and Rachida Dati, come, like him, from the right.

Prepare a possible general policy speech

Traditionally, even if the Constitution does not oblige him to do so, the new tenant of Matignon delivers a general policy statement at the Palais-Bourbon when a new government takes office. This speech allows the Prime Minister to reveal the main directions of his program, the main reforms and measures that he wants to put in place.

On this occasion, Michel Barnier phad decided to engage the responsibility of his government on its general policy statement. This possibility is provided for in Article 49 of the Constitution. In short, if a majority of deputies voted against, he would then have to present the resignation of his government. This scenario seems impossible, since the new Prime Minister only has a relative majority. Under Emmanuel Macron, only the heads of government with an absolute majority (Edouard Philippe and Jean Castex) have risked the exercise.

Addressing priority economic projects

On Michel Barnier’s desk, the urgent files are of an economic nature. The new head of government has less than a month to present the 2025 budget to the Council of Ministers, which will then be transmitted to the National Assembly on October 1.

But this deadline could exceptionally be extended by a few days, given the delay this summer and France’s financial situation. The country is in the red, with a public deficit of 5.5% of GDP in 2023, and is targeted by a European Commission procedure called “excessive public deficit”. The new tenant of Matignon must also decide on the fate of the pension reform and unemployment insurance.

The unions of the educational community also expect Michel Barnier and the future Minister of National Education to decide quickly on the reforms pending since the dissolution. The start of the school year has indeed taken place in uncertainty, particularly on the formula of the brevet to be presented to third-year students. The head of government is also expected to make a decision on the environment.

Managing the threat of censure by MPs

Michel Barnier will have to do everything to avoid motions of censure in Parliament. For such a motion to be adopted, the The text must be signed by one tenth of the deputies before being presented to the Assembly. It must then be approved by the absolute majority of the deputies who make up the National Assembly.This weapon provided for by the Constitution only hit its target once under the Fifth Republic, in 1962. The government of Georges Pompidou was then forced to resign.

By adding together all the formations of the central bloc, the LR deputies and the small heterogeneous Liot group, Michel Barnier could theoretically rely on 235 parliamentarians. He will therefore be missing at least 54 deputies to have an absolute majority (289 deputies). In this context, a grouped shot from the National Rally and the New Popular Front could theoretically bring down his government.

Jordan Bardella’s group refuses for the time being to decide on such a vote and is waiting for the general policy statement of the new occupant of Matignon. As for the coalition of the left, it has already announced that it is requesting the censure of Michel Barnier’s government. But it will have to wait for the official return of the deputies to the benches of the Palais-Bourbon to carry out this maneuver.