What is the survival rate of government tree plantations?

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Regarding government tree planting, has anyone studied their survival rate?

The Canadian government is just beginning to measure the survival of the first trees planted as part of its promise to plant 2 billion within a decade.

Natural Resources Canada officials “will conduct technical surveys this summer to assess the overall condition of the planting sites using field measurements and remote sensing techniques,” the federal department confirmed by email.

Ottawa did not wish to quantify its expectations, arguing that “it takes many years to learn more about the ability of trees to survive.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s ambitious tree-planting promises are primarily aimed at creating new forests that can capture carbon, and thus improve the country’s emissions record. The survival of trees is crucial, since it is only in the long term that these plants begin to capture carbon. The 2 Billion Trees program is even expected to be a net emitter of greenhouse gases until 2030!

However, the people responsible for planting the seedlings and ensuring their development are not directly federal employees, but rather “partners”: businesses, for-profit organizations, indigenous groups, municipalities, etc. They must present their project to the federal government, which only pays half the bill.

Canada’s environment commissioner rightly criticized last year the lack of attention paid by Natural Resources Canada to monitoring the health and survival of new trees planted by its partners. The department has since adopted a plan, which includes the use of drones to monitor forests over time.

“Since the lifespan of the trees planted will far exceed that of the 2 Billion Trees program, funding recipients are providing the geolocation of each planting site so that Natural Resources Canada can use current and future technologies to continue monitoring the planting sites once the program ends,” the department said.

Government specialists have already visited around twenty plantations since last autumn, and have reported “high quality” planting activities.

The federal 2 Billion Trees program is designed to transfer part of the bill to the provinces, something that Quebec and Ontario have yet to sign up to. In February, Ottawa flatly refused Quebec’s request that the criteria be relaxed to give the right to cut down these trees one day to make building materials.

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