The government’s text will be studied from Wednesday by a joint joint committee, which brings together seven deputies and seven senators, responsible for finding a compromise for a version common to both chambers.
It is still contested in the street, but now voted by part of Parliament. The pension reform continues its winding course with the adoption in the Senate of an amended version of the text, Saturday, March 11, by 195 votes against 112. A new stage made possible by an acceleration of the debates decided by the senatorial majority on the right, but especially by the weapon of the “blocked vote” unsheathed Friday by the government. The text, however, has not finished with Parliament. What will happen now? The bill now takes the path of the Joint Joint Committee (CMP). A body little known to the general public, which will nevertheless be at the heart of the discussions from Wednesday March 15.
Provided for by article 45 of the Constitution, the mixed parity commission intervenes when the National Assembly and the Senate do not agree on a bill or a proposal of law. This is the case for the current reform, voted at the Palais du Luxembourg but not at the Palais-Bourbon, where the debates could not be completed. The aim of the CMP is to arrive at a text common to both chambers.
The CMP is made up of seven deputies and seven senators who represent the balance of the political groups in each chamber. On the side of the Assembly, the Renaissance deputies have three seats and the MoDem one, while the Republicans, the National Rally and La France insoumise have one each. On the side of the Senate, the senators Les Républicains will have three seats, the socialists two, the centrists and the macronist group (RDPI, member of Renaissance) one each. The presidential majority and the right will therefore have 10 of the 14 seats on this commission.
One commission, two possible outcomes
These deputies and senators will focus from Wednesday, March 15 on the differences observed in the National Assembly to try to tune their violins, while the unions have planned to mobilize that day. But the members of the CMP have only one day to achieve this, behind closed doors.
If it will be particularly scrutinized in the current context, this procedure is not exceptional: since the last legislative elections, in June 2022, 14 bills have been the subject of a CMP, recalls LCP. What is unusual is rather the fact that the CMP is studying a text which has only been voted on in one of the two chambers, underlines political scientist Olivier Rozenberg.
There are two possible outcomes for CMP. In the first case, despite their initial differences on several points, the fourteen parliamentarians can agree on a common text. This compromise is likely, because of the agreements on this pension reform between the presidential majority in the Assembly and the right-wing majority in the Senate. The conclusions of this CMP will then be submitted to the vote of the two chambers, first in the Senate and then in the Assembly, Thursday, March 16. At this stage, the text of the CMP can only be amended with the agreement of the government. “It reduces the possibilities of obstruction”explains Olivier Rozenberg.
If the CMP does not succeed, the least probable scenario, the legislative procedure will then be lengthened: within the framework of the parliamentary shuttle, the text will return for a new reading in the National Assembly, then in the Senate, and finally in the Assembly if the two versions of the text have still not converged. If this is the case, things could get complicated for the government, because parliamentarians will be able to table new amendments, if they do not relate to provisions for which the Assembly and the Senate have already decided. Clearly, the opposition, especially on the left, may again try to slow down the final examination of the text. Especially since the schedule is tight. The Parliament must indeed decide in total in 50 days, that is to say by March 26 at midnight, failing which the provisions of the reform can be implemented by ordinance by the government, provides for the Constitution.
A new 49.3 could “ignite the powder”
But the executive remains confident about the CMP. In this case, the text must be validated Thursday from 9 a.m. in the Senate, then 3 p.m. in the Assembly. Voting by senators should not be a problem. On the other hand, it is not at all certain that the deputies validate the final bill.
“There is uncertainty linked to a contingent of elected LRs, between 15 and 20 deputies, who would not follow the position of the group. Not to mention that some elected representatives of the majority are reluctant to vote for this text.”
Olivier Rozenberg, political scientist at Sciences Poat franceinfo
Enough to raise the specter of a new 49.3, which would allow the government to dispense with a potentially explosive vote. Elisabeth Borne has already triggered this provision ten times since her appointment at Matignon. But the use of 49.3 on such an emblematic text would be politically difficult to defend for the executive. If adopted via this article, the pension reform would have “a democratic vice”, warned Monday March 6 Laurent Berger, boss of the CFDT, on France Inter. It may “set fire to the powder”abounded his CGT counterpart, Philippe Martinez, on France 2.
The entry into force of the bill is still scheduled for the beginning of September, according to the schedule defined for several months by the government. Before that, can the Constitutional Council thwart part of the executive’s plans? “There will be a referral to the Constitutional Council, that’s for sure”, anticipates Olivier Rozenberg. For the constitutionalist Dominique Chagnollaud, the Sages will “censor a number of social riders”, that is to say, provisions integrated into the text when they do not normally come under a bill for the amending financing of Social Security (PLFRSS).
“The Elders will have one month to deliver their opinion. Most likely, it is a partial censorship of the text”, believes Olivier Rozenberg. In this case, the government could decide to reintegrate the measures censured by the Constitutional Council in other texts to come in the coming months.