The Democrat withdrew from the White House race on July 21. While he was praised by his camp for reviving the country’s economy, his mixed results on immigration tarnish his record.
He wants “passing the torch to a new generation”. A month after giving up on the presidential race, Joe Biden officially handed over the role of representing the Democrats to Kamala Harris on Monday, August 19. He took this final step during the party’s national convention, which is being held in Chicago, Illinois, until Thursday, August 22. After pushing him out because of his age, members of his camp have continued to salute one “of the most important presidents” of the United States. Starting with his vice-president and successor, who congratulated him in July for his record “unparalleled in modern history”.
The president himself praised his record in a speech to the nation at the end of July. “I believe that my record as president, my leadership on the world stage, my vision for America’s future, merited a second term.”he said. First of all, it is its environmental policy, which is considered “the strongest” of history by one of Barack Obama’s climate advisers, which is being praised to the skies. From the first day of his mandate, the Democrat unraveled the climate-killing policies implemented by Donald Trump: he confirmed the return of the United States to the Paris Agreement and suspended the Keystone XL pipeline project, intended to transport oil from the tar sands between Mexico and Canada.
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Joe Biden has given the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) a new lease on life, “put under wraps by Donald Trump, who had appointed a former oil lobbyist as its head“recalls Ludivine Gilli, director of the North American Observatory at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. “The EPA had lost some of its employees and its capacity to act, due to the directives of the presidency. The Biden administration has given it back the means to control polluting emissions”underlines the specialist.
But on the hydrocarbons side, the results are less green. Under Joe Biden, the United States has consolidated its position as the world’s largest oil producer, even breaking records in 2023, according to the American Energy Agency. While he had promised to ban new drilling on federal lands, the president has given the green light to several projects, including the highly controversial Willow in Alaska.
Instead of reducing fossil fuel production, Joe Biden has developed renewables, allocating billions of dollars to the sector. Solar panel factories and wind turbines have flourished in Texas and, by 2023, clean energy will cover nearly a quarter of the country’s electricity demand, according to BloombergNEF. Tax credits for the purchase of an electric car produced in the United States have also emerged, as have battery and charger factories, a sector showered with subsidies.
These investments are part of a broader plan: the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), adopted in 2022. Presented as a means of combating inflation (which soared to 8% in 2022, according to the IMF), it has a budget of 400 billion euros over ten years. In addition to the envelope dedicated to the energy transition, the Biden administration’s plan contains a health component. Objective: to reduce the price of drugs by authorizing Medicare (public health insurance) to negotiate them with pharmaceutical laboratories. Since January 2023, “The IRA has reached a ceiling the cost of insulin for Medicare beneficiaries at $35 per month”illustrates the Senate Committee on Aging.
These reforms complement a vast plan for the country’s infrastructure, adopted in 2021. “It opened up a lot of investment opportunities in the repair of roads and bridgesports, high-speed internet in rural areas and native reserveswater supply systems…”, Ludivine Gilli list. The American Treasury welcomed in November to see these funds benefit especially “to the states that needed it most”those “whose infrastructure was rated the lowest”.
“These investments help improve people’s daily lives. But it takes time to carry out this work.”
Ludivine Gilli, United States specialistto franceinfo
Six months before the end of his term, economic indicators are in the green. With growth of 1.9% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023 according to the IMF, Joe Biden has managed to keep the country’s economy afloat. The unemployment rate had jumped to 14.7% in April 2020, due to the pandemic. It has been around 3 to 4% for a year, according to the economic data institute Trading Economics. However, it rose slightly to 4.3% in July, the highest unemployment rate since October 2021. Enough to cause a wave of panic on the stock markets on August 5, which finally returned to almost normal the next day.
Americans don’t seem to be seeing these improvements. Some 42% of them said in mid-July that their financial situation had worsened under Joe Biden, according to an Ipsos poll for ABC News. “If you take into account gasoline and real estate prices, or inflation, the country has not yet returned to the levels at the beginning of his term.”notes Ludivine Gilli. It is also too early to take stock of certain policies. “His two major investment plans will likely have a very significant impact, but in the medium to long term.”
Before Joe Biden’s withdrawal announcement, only 35% of Americans trusted him to improve the economic situation, compared to 45% for Donald Trump, according to ABC News. They were also more numerous in betting on the Republican to manage the migration crisis at the border with Mexico. And for good reason: since 2021, irregular entries into the United States have reached record levels, reports the AP agency. The peak was reached in December 2023, when nearly 250,000 migrants crossed the border illegally.
“When Joe Biden came to power, there were still travel restrictions related to Covid-19, notes Ludivine Gilli. But they have gradually been lifted, particularly in Central American countries, and migrants have started to gather at the border again.” In early June, Joe Biden finally took steps to limit the number of daily entries into the United States. But it is difficult to know whether these measures are the only ones responsible for the decline in crossings, which had begun before their implementation.
The economy has not been the only challenge of Joe Biden’s term. In addition to the pandemic, his first year in the White House has been marked by the withdrawal of the American army from Afghanistan. While this departure had been decided under Donald Trump, the images of soldiers hastily evacuating Kabul and the death of 13 soldiers have caused the president’s approval ratings to plummet.
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As recalled by the New York Timesthe Democrat also inherited a “confrontation” trade with China. Added to this were two major wars, in Gaza and Ukraine. Joe Biden released $100 billion in military aid to support kyiv, even though he was not required to do so by any security agreement. He also obtained from Russia, along with other Western countries, the exchange of 26 prisoners in early August, a “diplomatic feat”in his words. “I find it hard to imagine how NATO would have handled the invasion of Ukraine under Trump”wonders Jeff Hawkins, a research associate at CERI and a former U.S. diplomat. In February, the Republican suggested he might refuse to defend his allies if Moscow attacked.
Joe Biden, for his part, congratulated himself at the last NATO summit on having strengthened the alliance – and even on having contributed to its enlargement. “Sweden and Finland have joined NATOwhile historically these two nations followed a doctrine of neutrality”continues Jeff Hawkins.
On the social level, Joe Biden suffered from a context over which he sometimes had little control. “Democrats support initiatives to protect rights, but many of these powers depend on the states.“, points out Ludivine Gilli. Or the Supreme Court. In 2022, the highest court in the country overturned a ruling guaranteeing the right to abortion, leading to a restriction or ban on abortion in 21 states, according to the count of the New York Times. “It is complicated for Joe Biden to have a decisive impact on this subject, insists the historian. This is why he calls for electing Democrats. [au Congrès cet automne]to come back to these setbacks.”
The November 5 election will be decisive for Democrats’ ability to legislate on civil rights, but also for the mark that Joe Biden leaves in the White House. “It is always difficult to assess a mandate so early. The outcome of the presidential election will contribute to this”judges Ludivine Gilli. Because, by withdrawing so close to the deadline, the head of state “impose Kamala Harris” to his party.
“If she wins in November, we will applaud the fact that Joe Biden made the decision in time, allowing his vice president to gather around her.”
Ludivine Gilli, United States specialistto franceinfo
In the event of failure, however, some will criticize the octogenarian for not having better prepared his succession. If he had earlier given up on running for a second term, “the party could have chosen a consensus candidate (…) to beat Donald Trump”says Ludivine Gilli. Even if he ultimately does not represent the Democrats in the presidential election, “Joe Biden is playing for his legacy” on this ballot.