Summer temperatures and the lack of rain in mainland France have contributed to drying out the soil in the north of the country. Some refer to the term “flash drought”. Where does this expression come from?
This is not the vocabulary of Météo France, but “flash drought” is an American expression, which has been the subject of a scientific publication in Science a few weeks ago. It occurs in the event of high temperatures, lack of rain, which, combined with winds, cause the soil to go from a situation of normal humidity to a situation of problematic drought in a few days. Which can affect the state of the vegetation, for example at the moment, in the north of France, the spring crops of potatoes, corn or beets.
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When we look at the current situation with heat, an absence of rain in the North and thunderstorms in the South, we can have the feeling that the weather is upside down and that it is totally exceptional. We spoke about it to Christine Berne climatologist at Météo France and it is rather false: the sunny weather on the north of France is explained by the presence of an anticyclone on the British islands.
A hotter summer than usual
In this season, it is not exceptional to have long periods without precipitation in certain regions and thunderstorms in the south. This weather occurs in a hydrological context, which is exceptional for it, because two thirds of the underground water reserves remain below monthly norms. Unfortunately, the short and intense thunderstorms in the south of France are not effective precipitation to infiltrate the ground in the south of France. Generally speaking, according to satellite observations from the Copernicus programme, one third of Europe is currently in a drought situation.
In this context, one can imagine that the summer promises to be rather hot, according to the seasonal forecasts of Météo France. A hotter than usual summer, a normal summer or a colder than usual summer? It is the hotter summer scenario that wins in terms of probability. We must therefore actually expect temperatures rather higher than average for June, July and August. On the precipitation side, on the other hand, there is no preferred scenario at this stage.