Ukraine’s possible membership in NATO is one of the issues that motivated the Russian invasion, which has been in full swing for almost two weeks. But what is NATO and why isn’t Ukraine in it? The duty spoke with two experts to dissect the political-military alliance and its role in the conflict.
What is NATO and what is its role?
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military alliance formed in 1949 by 12 countries, including the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and France. Created shortly after World War II, it was intended to counter the threat of post-war Russian expansion in Europe.
Today, NATO serves as a collective defense system for the thirty or so countries that subscribe to it, summarizes Charles-Philippe David, founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in strategic and diplomatic studies. Member countries pledge to defend each other against any attack on a member country — a commitment enshrined in the treaty’s most famous article, Article 5.
“I compare it to the Three Musketeers clause: one for all and all for one. […] If a NATO member country is attacked by a foreign power, Canada would therefore have no choice but to embark on military defense and reaction,” summarizes Mr. David.
Which countries are members?
In addition to the United States and Canada, ten other countries were among the founding members of the organization when it was created in 1949: Belgium, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Bas, Norway, Portugal and Great Britain.
Since then, 18 other European countries have joined: Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Macedonia North, Poland, Turkey, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.
The Alliance thus has 30 member countries today. North Macedonia is the latest country to join its ranks, in March 2020. Some other European countries, such as Sweden and Finland, have avoided joining NATO over the years.
“Membership of NATO remains a free choice, it is an alliance by invitation, it is not an alliance of imposition. There are countries which, for all sorts of reasons, chose not to join it because they did not believe that it would meet their needs or their security concerns,” underlines Charles-Philippe David.
Why is Ukraine not a member country?
Ukraine had long since expressed its desire to join NATO: the country had started a formal process to launch an action plan for an application for NATO membership in 2008.
“The problem that quickly arose was that there were problems of corruption, governance, crisis and conflict zones in the East. This made many people hesitate about the stability and the democratic paces of the country. “says Mr. David. The decision on the accession of a third country must be unanimous within the member countries.
Already then, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated that any attempt to expand NATO to its borders was seen as a “direct threat”, expressing concern about the expansion of the military and political alliance based to counter the former Soviet Union.
“Of course, there was concern about the Russians’ acceptability of such inclusion, which made the French and Germans in particular hesitate about Ukraine’s membership. It wouldn’t have happened without their support, so we put it off until later,” adds Mr. David.
What are the conditions for becoming a member of NATO?
Countries that aspire to NATO membership are expected to achieve certain political, economic and military goals to ensure that they will become contributors to the security of the Alliance as well as beneficiaries of it.
“Normally, you have to have a democratic political system that is based on a market economy, treat minority populations fairly, settle conflicts peacefully and contribute militarily to NATO operations”, summarizes Luca Sollai, doctoral student and lecturer in the History Department of the University of Montreal.
Why does Russia strongly oppose Ukraine’s NATO membership?
Although there are several historical, political and geographical reasons, President Putin considers in particular a potential accession of Ukraine to the military alliance as a threat to Russia’s borders and its sphere of influence.
“Russia fears, rightly or wrongly, for its security and that of its borders. It sees this as a threat because NATO military bases could end up on the Russian-Ukrainian border” indicates Mr. Sollei, who also recalls that relations between Russia and Western countries have always been difficult.
“For Russia, it is vital that three countries do not enter NATO: Belarus, Ukraine and Finland. These three countries will always pose a problem if they want to start an accession process. Russia will not give in on these issues, in my opinion,” he adds.
Is it still possible for Ukraine to join NATO?
While it is difficult to predict the future of Ukraine in the context of the ongoing invasion, one thing is certain, according to Mr. David: the war started by Russia will have persuaded several other countries to want to join NATO.
“It’s not so much Ukraine that will be part of NATO, it’s that there will be requests from other countries which are afraid of Russia and which will quickly want to become members. I am thinking of Georgia and Moldova, but also of Finland and Sweden, which are seriously afraid,” observes the founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.
“I find it hard to see how Russia, which employs such massive military forces, could accept anything less than the commitment of a neutral Ukraine not to join NATO,” Mr. Sollai believes for his part. President Putin has effectively set as a precondition for any dialogue Kiev’s acceptance of all of Moscow’s demands, including the demilitarization of Ukraine and a neutral status for the country.
Why does NATO not intervene in the conflict?
Because Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but above all because that would imply that the alliance would go to war, according to Charles-Phillipe David. At the start of the conflict, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was already announcing that the organization would not send troops to Ukraine: “NATO has no troops in Ukraine and has no plans and no intention of deploying troops to this country,” he said. However, the Alliance had activated “its defense plans” to deploy additional forces in the allied countries on its eastern flank.
“That’s the Three Musketeers clause. If we intervene in Ukraine, that means declaring war on Russia. […] That’s why [le président américain] Joe Biden said that there was no question of a single American soldier being deployed in Ukraine, ”he observes.
NATO allies have rejected Kiev’s request to create a no-fly zone in Ukraine. Why ?
As with sending Western armed forces into Ukraine, the imposition of a no-fly zone would likely lead to a major escalation of the conflict, David believes. “You have to be aware that this is a form of entering the war which is not on the ground but which would perhaps lead us there”.
“The issue was raised and the Allies agreed that we should not have NATO aircraft operating in Ukrainian airspace or NATO troops on the ground because we could end up with an all-out war in Europe”, also explained the secretary general of the organization, Jens Stoltenberg.
The establishment of an exclusion zone would be considered by Moscow “as a participation in the armed conflict of any country” whose territory would be used to “create a threat to our soldiers”, warned the Russian president at the start of the week.