Azerbaijan launches “anti-terrorist operations” in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a disputed enclave with Armenia. For Tigrane Yégavian, the Armenian inhabitants are threatened.
“What is happening is the imminence of ethnic cleansing, but we can see that the world is looking elsewhere”explained Tuesday September 19 on franceinfo Tigrane Yégavian, professor of international relations at Schiller University, while Azerbaijan is launching “anti-terrorist operations” in Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave disputed for many years with Armenia.
franceinfo: What is the origin of this conflict?
Tigrane Yégavian: We have to go back a century, even though the Nagorno-Karabakh province is a historical province of the ancient kingdom of Armenia. It has always been a sort of defensive base. In 1921, when Azerbaijan and Armenia joined the Soviet Union, Karabakh was ceded to Soviet Azerbaijan. But its population, 94% Armenian, has never recognized it. It was not until 1988 that it again demanded its attachment to Soviet Armenia. A war followed, won by the Armenians of Karabakh, without their status being completely determined. The problem with this conflict is that it opposes two antagonistic principles of international law. On the one hand, territorial integrity, Karabakh still being recognized as Azerbaijani territory. On the other hand, the right to self-determination since it is a province with an Armenian authority which is not internationally recognized.
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What is the situation in these territories?
In 2020, there was a shift in the balance of power. After a 44-day war, the Azerbaijanis managed to recover 75% of the territories that the Armenians controlled. But they did not completely win their case. Their objective, which was the annihilation of Armenian Karabakh, could not be achieved, since the Russians arrived at the last minute to impose a peacekeeping force. Since then, the Azerbaijanis have had two objectives. They want to put an end to the Armenian presence in Karabakh once and for all. They are creating a blockade to suffocate and starve the population. They are taking advantage of the fact that the world is looking elsewhere, with the context in Ukraine, and Russia more dependent on Azerbaijan to export its hydrocarbons. The other objective is an extraterritorial corridor which would pass through the south of Armenia, and which would connect Azerbaijan to a territory which belongs to it. It is called Nakhichevan and is backed by Armenia and Turkey. For the Armenians, it would be the beginning of the end, because they would be surrounded by mortal enemies, and cut off from the border with Iran.
Are Russia and Turkey the two most powerful players in this conflict?
Effectively. The Turks and Russians agreed in 2020 to exclude the West, while the Americans and the French had a say, since they co-chaired a mediation group, the Minsk group. Since 2020, there has been no real Western presence in the settlement of this conflict. Russians and Turks share the region like a condominium, a bit like in Syria. This is extremely dangerous for the Armenians, since the Russians are at odds with the Armenian government, which is trying to pivot towards the United States. Armenians are frustrated that the Russians are not protecting them, not defending Armenia’s sovereign territory. They are also frustrated that the West cannot develop an interposition force, of blue helmets. There, what is happening is the imminence of ethnic cleansing and the responsibility to protect is a principle that could help them survive, but we can see that the world is looking elsewhere.
Is the threat serious for Armenia since it goes beyond the case of Karabakh?
Yes. Azerbaijan is not going to stop with the ethnic cleansing of the Karabakh armies. By massively bombing civilian populations, the signal is very clear. They call people to leave. But they are not going to stop there, because they have claims on southern Armenia, which is a vulnerable strip. A real strategic dilemma arises.