Despite the protests and the anger of the opposition, Parliament voted on Monday in favor of a bill extending Macky Sall’s mandate until the end of the year.
A dive into the unknown. The Senegalese Parliament approved, on Monday February 5, the postponement of the presidential election scheduled for the end of February to December 15. The bill shifting the vote was passed almost unanimously, after the exclusion of opposition deputies from the hemicycle by the gendarmerie. The mandate of the head of state, Macky Sall, was also extended until the inauguration of his successor.
The opposition denounces “institutional coup” and this crisis is throwing Senegal into uncertainty: the presidential election has never been postponed in this country since this election was organized democratically for the first time in 1993.
Why is the presidential election postponed?
President Macky Sall, who announced last summer that he would not seek a new mandate, announced on Saturday February 3 the postponement of the presidential election sine die. Although unprecedented, this decision is not entirely a surprise. “Members of the majority had been floating this idea for several days”notes Paulin Maurice Toupane, senior researcher at the Dakar office of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
In question, “accusations of corruption and collusion against certain members of the Constitutional Council”who the opposition criticized for having ruled out the candidacy of the leader of the Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS), Karim Wade. “The Council deemed his application inadmissible, because he also had French nationality at the time of submitting his application.summarizes Paulin Maurice Toupane.
Karim Wade did renounce his dual nationality, but the decree was only published three weeks after submitting his candidacy, specifies Release. His party demanded the opening of a parliamentary commission of inquiry, voted on, with the support of deputies from the presidential coalition, on Wednesday January 31. It was following this initiative that Macky Sall issued a decree to postpone the election, citing a “dispute between the National Assembly and the Constitutional Council, in open conflict against the backdrop of an alleged case of corruption of judges“.
Why is the opposition denouncing an “institutional coup”?
The current crisis was born from a commission of inquiry “supported by the ruling party” while “directly questioned his candidate”, notes Etienne Smith, lecturer in political science at Sciences Po Bordeaux. For what ? “The candidate of the presidential coalition, Prime Minister Amadou Ba, is not unanimous internally. This rebellion weakens his campaign and his chances of winning”notes Paulin Maurice Toupane.
“We are witnessing an implosion of the majority, which is using the pretext of the invalidation of Karim Wade’s candidacy to provoke a crisis and try to find another candidate than Amadou Ba.”
Etienne Smith, political scientistat franceinfo
Another potential reason behind this postponement: the validation by the Constitutional Council of another candidacy, that of Bassirou Diomaye Faye. He represents the African Patriots of Senegal for work, ethics and fraternity (Pastef), the party of the main opponent, Ousmane Sonko. “The nightmare of power is to see this movement, which has been dissolved, compete in the presidential election”, notes Etienne Smith. And for good reason: while Amadou Ba struggles to convince, “Bassirou Diomaye Faye benefits from strong momentum and is ahead of the other opposition candidates”confirms Paulin Maurice Toupane.
Like Ousmane Sonko, Bassirou Diomaye Faye is currently incarcerated. “His candidacy was validated by the Constitutional Council because he has not yet been tried, while that of Sonko was rejected, because he has already been convicted and his appeals rejected”details Etienne Smith. “THE postponement of the election therefore leaves time to oust [le Pastef]for example if Faye is sentenced by December 15″, says this specialist from Senegal. Which would give the presidential coalition another chance to try to stay in power.
On Saturday, Macky Sall once again pledged not to run for a third term, according to Le Figaro. But the promise is not enough to appease the anger of the opposition, which denounces “institutional coup”. “This election had an unprecedented configuration, with an outgoing president who is not running for re-election, twenty candidates selected, and therefore a fairly open ballot which aroused the interest of votersunderlines Etienne Smith. On the political, constitutional and institutional level, this is a major and unprecedented crisis for Senegal since 1962.”
“In 2012, the presidential election took place in difficult circumstances, with large-scale demonstrations to protest against the third candidacy of the outgoing head of state, Abdoulaye Wade. The election still took place.”
Paulin Maurice Toupane, researcher at the ISSat franceinfo
“Today, the presidential election is being postponed on the basis of simple allegations, the veracity of which has not yet been established, insists the researcher. It is a questioning of democratic achievements, which exposes us to situations impossible to anticipate.”
Is there a risk of conflagration in the country?
Like other observers, the experts contacted by franceinfo fear that the country will experience violence after the postponement of the presidential election. “The adoption of the law by Parliament will exacerbate political tensions and risks intensifying demonstrations, in Dakar as in the rest of the country”, analyzes Paulin Maurice Toupane. The researcher fears scenes similar to those of March 2021 and July 2023, “where there were dozens of deaths, injuries and destruction of public property” during harshly repressed gatherings.
The first gatherings of protesters, Sunday February 4, were confined to the capital. But they have already given rise to clashes with the police and arrests of opponents, reports Release. Journalists were also arrested and the Walf TV channel had its broadcasting license suspended by the government, for “incitement to violence”, according to RFI. Access to mobile internet was also cut for several hours on Monday, as Parliament prepared to vote to postpone the election. “This is confirmation of a form of authoritarian shift in power, which we have been observing in Senegal for several years already”estimates Etienne Smith.
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The announcement of a new date for the vote, set for December 15, risks being insufficient to defuse the crisis. “The extension of Macky Sall’s mandate beyond April 2 is already contested by the opposition”, adds Paulin Maurice Toupane. Some parties have thus declared that they would consider power vacant from this date. “April 3 will be a defining moment for Senegal, from which the legitimacy of the president will be openly contested,” insists the ISS researcher, who notes that “the opposition has even put forward the idea of setting up a parallel government.” “What will happen from here ?asks Paulin Maurice Toupane. Anything you can imagine, good or bad, is possible.”