what is behind the “record” drop in France’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2023?

A “historically good year” and an “record year”. The Minister of Ecological Transition, Christophe Béchu, did not hide a certain satisfaction by announcing, Wednesday March 20, that France had reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 4.8% in 2023 compared to 2022. this year 2023 alone, it is about “almost the entire drop” recorded “in France between 2012 and 2017”said the minister on TF1.

Global warming is linked to human activities and more particularly to our greenhouse gas emissions caused by the use of fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal). Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas. France has set itself the objective of reducing its emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This implies that they fall by 5% per year, every year, between 2022 and 2030.

“This year 2023, it is on track with the pace that we must maintain until the end of the decade.”

Christophe Béchu, Minister of Ecological Transition

on TF1

The 2023 drop “valid in all sectors”, according to Christophe Béchu, revealing in preview the figures from Citepa (PDF), the organization responsible for evaluating France’s greenhouse gas emissions. The decrease is “more marked” for the construction sector. “It’s the continuation of renovation, also of sobriety on the part of households”did he declare. “We also have a drop in industry, but which is spread over the year, which is not linked to an economic slowdown at the end of the year”he assured.

Late transport

The Minister of Ecological Transition concedes a downside: a drop “more modest in transport” Or “we nevertheless have a drop in emissions of around 2%”. The slow rate of reduction in the transport sector is often pointed out. In 2022, emissions from the sector had even increased by 2%. The difficulties in generating a decline are “a real problem, because France’s emissions are mainly in transport”notes Nicolas Goldberg, energy specialist at Columbus Consulting.

“The biggest challenge for France is transport”estimated climatologist Gilles Ramstein on franceinfo in 2022. With 136 million tonnes of CO2eq, transport represents the sector emitting the most greenhouse gases in France (31% of emissions), far ahead of industry (19 % of emissions) and agriculture (19% of emissions), according to data from the High Council for the Climate.

For Nicolas Goldberg, the State only attacks “timidly” the problem when it should be “accelerate” in the field. He takes the example of social leasing of electric cars, which he describes as “great idea”. The measure, a victim of its success, was stopped for 2024 in February. “The government chose to shut it down rather than expand it, it’s a shame”he comments, emphasizing that the device can help to “breaking beliefs and preconceived ideas” such as the fact that these vehicles are expensive, not easy or practical to use.

A sobriety suffered

For the rest, it is still difficult to distinguish between reductions which reflect real efforts and those linked to inflation. There “spectacular fall” of gas and electricity consumption is linked to the explosion in prices, says Nicolas Goldberg. According to him, certain practices will continue, such as heating rooms to only 19°C. “But will the industrialist who has modified his process marginally to use less gas maintain it? asks the expert. Was the crisis a trigger or did it accelerate a trend that was already there?”

The decline is “mainly due to cyclical effects, unfortunately suffered, mainly linked to increases in energy prices, and therefore to unchosen sobriety”agrees Cyrielle Denhartigh, program coordinator for the Climate Action Network.

One thing is certain: trends will have to continue to meet the objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Above all, warns Nicolas Goldberg, France will only be able to reach them if it manages to unblock the situation for transport. In addition to the electrification of the car, this can involve more public transport, sobriety with a reduction in speed on the roads or measures to reduce the weight of vehicles, lists the specialist. But on subjects that affect the individual car, “we can see that we are going backwards”. For planes, Cyrielle Denhartigh believes that the State must “reform the taxation of the aviation sector, whose emissions continue to increase”.