what impact for Egypt, a new member of the alliance, and Argentina, which preferred to decline the invitation

This January 1 marks the integration of five new countries into the Brics group, an unprecedented enlargement for this heterogeneous coalition. Among the six countries invited to join the bloc, including Egypt, only Argentina refused. Our correspondents describe the situation on site.

The Brics group, bringing together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, alone represented more than 40% of the world’s population and a quarter of its wealth. In this new year 2024, the club is expanding and taking a step towards the Middle East since, if Javier Milei’s Argentina prefers to stay away, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran joins the coalition. Ethiopia is the fifth new country to join this bloc of emerging countries.

In Cairo, the idea has been around since 2017, at the suggestion of China, a long-standing partner country. It is now done, Egypt wakes up in 2024 as a member of the Brics. On site, it didn’t make the headlines, but the entry was hailed as an important step for the country. The request for membership was not debated as Cairo’s ties are close with most of the alliance countries, especially in economic matters. For example, trade between Egypt and the Brics members represented more than $31 billion in 2022.

Egypt hopes to access the enormous investment capacities of China or India

It is good from an economic point of view that Egypt could benefit from its membership. Faced with a very significant liquidity crisis, worsened since the start of the war in Ukraine, Egypt is seeking at all costs to attract foreign investment. By integrating this alliance, the country hopes on the one hand to reduce its dependence on the American dollar which it sorely lacks, and on the other hand to facilitate partnerships with countries whose investment resources are enormous, such as China or the India. Access to loans from these countries is all the more a priority as in the West, the IMF is demanding more and more reforms that the current al-Sissi regime is reluctant to implement.

From a diplomatic point of view, this accession is clearly a step towards China and Russia. But nothing new under the sun, Egypt has been allied with these countries for a long time. Nor does it call into question Cairo’s proximity to Washington or Paris. Rather, we should see continuity in Egyptian diplomacy, which remains attached to its historic independence on the international scene and which focuses on maintaining good relations with as many actors as possible, in the East and in the West.

Milei’s Argentina prefers to stay on the side of the United States

Argentina will ultimately not join the Brics. New President Javier Milei, who came to power on December 10, officially rejected the group’s invitation to become a member. In a letter sent on December 22 to the five countries concerned, Javier Milei wrote that he did not consider “timely” the incorporation of Argentina. A non-membership that he had already promised during his electoral campaign, while the former center-left government wanted to join this club.

This decision is above all ideological. The ultraliberal has always displayed a pro-United States position on trade matters. Javier Milei has in the past had very harsh words towards the Chinese regime or Brazilian President Lula, described among other things as “corrupt communist”. Since his election, however, he has lowered his voice and laid the foundations for peaceful diplomatic relations with Brasilia and Beijing, respectively Argentina’s two main trading partners. This rejection is therefore first and foremost a gesture in favor of the United States. In exchange for his loyalty, Milei expects funding from the IMF and/or private investors.

A shortfall for the Brics

Milei’s supporters applauded the decision, but in society there is a mixture of indignation and disappointment. Many deplore a poor reading of current dynamics, or even a strong dose of improvisation in the new president’s foreign policy. They even joke about the fact that even Bolsonaro, with ideologies similar to those of Milei, had not dared to slam the door of the Brics. For international trade experts, full alignment with the United States in a multipolar international context does not seem very strategic. But the current Minister of Foreign Affairs, Diana Mondino, who shares with Milei a very bipolar vision of geopolitics, was not very worried, declaring with optimism that she was now betting everything on future agreements with the “Western democracies and the free world”.

For the Brics, this is a big shortfall. With 42% of the world’s population, these allies have strong needs for food and energy. Two sectors in which Argentina has serious advantages, with its soybean and cereal crops, or its gas and oil deposits and extractions.