It was thought to be moribund, on the verge of disappearing on an increasingly polarized political scene. However, like a good political phoenix, the French center managed to rise from its ashes on the evening of the second round and could even give birth to the next prime minister.
At the Élysée Palace on Sunday evening, the defeat of the presidential camp in the second round of the legislative elections tasted like victory, if not resurrection. And so what if the Macronist camp — which brings together Renaissance, Emmanuel Macron’s party, MoDem, heir to the center, as well as Horizons, the center-right movement of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe — went from 245 to 168 deputies in two years. The essential was elsewhere for the President of the French Republic.
True to form, Emmanuel Macron could not help but express his relief in front of the guests with whom he spent the election night. “The central bloc, which was said to be dead, is here and very much alive,” he stressed, according to comments reported by the newspaper. The worldFor the French president, in fact, the outgoing majority has more than limited the damage and remains an “unavoidable bloc”.
The center, which had made him king in 2017 and 2022 and which was said to be clinically dead on the evening of the first round (during which he had collected less than 22% of the votes), has therefore been resurrected. Better still, it remains more than ever the point of balance in French politics.
A successful bet for Macron
“This is one of the lessons from Sunday’s vote,” explains Julien Tourreille, a doctoral student in political science at the Université du Québec à Montréal and a researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair. “The Macron version of the centre, which we thought had been weakened, or even wiped off the map on the evening of the European elections on June 9, still brought together nearly a quarter of voters. With scores comparable to those of the first rounds of 2017 and 2022, there is a form of stability.”
The French president has therefore won his bet, even if he will now have to work with the other parties – and review his vertical conception of power, in particular – to avoid the political deadlock of the country.
In the negotiations that began Sunday evening, the centrist current is essential in the formation of a coalition government. Moreover, if the New Popular Front wants to enter government, it will have no other option than to reach an agreement with the center. “If we add up the number of deputies from the moderate parties with the ecologists and the socialists, the center is the main force in the country,” says Mr. Tourreille.
The French centrist movement could even cast its net wider than its usual limits, the researcher believes, as it represents a more reasonable option than the extremes.
Towards a centrist prime minister?
“France is the country of reason. Today it wants to be governed by a realistic left allied to the center,” Jacques Attali, who previously advised Emmanuel Macron, as well as former socialist president François Mitterrand, declared on the social network X on Sunday evening.
Words that sum up well the new balance of power that will tear French politics apart in the coming weeks, with the appointment of a new prime minister and the formation of the next government.
“The Macronist center and the socialist deputies can talk to each other beyond the nuances,” explains Mr. Tourreille. “On the substance, there are differences, but they are not insurmountable. There are more common ground between the Socialist Party [PS] and the Macronists that between the PS and La France insoumise of Jean-Luc Mélenchon”, a formation with which he allied himself within the New Popular Front.
The stability of the next government will certainly lie in the ability of the Socialist Party to reach an agreement with the presidential camp. The next prime minister is therefore likely to emerge from the center of the chessboard. To do this, it will be necessary to convince the socialists, the environmentalists and some communists to support him. And in this role, the former socialist president François Hollande would have the perfect profile to give guarantees to both the left and the right.
The British example
For once, the French could also take inspiration from the United Kingdom, where the moderate Labour Party member Keir Starmer won last week’s elections hands down. In his quest for power, he took care to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn, who was weighing him down on his left.
This is what the French centre-left could be tempted to do with Jean-Luc Mélenchon if it wants to return to power, suggests Julien Tourreille. “We must convince voters not to be tempted by the extremes. The French left should learn from this. People want to see reasonable political figures in power, they want to see politicians capable of reaching an agreement, of finding compromises.”
A path that inevitably passes through the center.