In response to the assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas military leaders in late July, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards promised that a response would take place “in due course.”
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The situation in the Middle East makes the international community fear a regional conflagration more than ever. After theThe assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah military leader Fouad Shokr, attributed to Israel,Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen have threatened Tel Aviv with armed retaliation. On Monday, August 12, John Kirby, the spokesman for the United States, said he expected “a series of significant attacks on Israel” which can intervene as soon as “this week”.
Iran “will never give in to pressure […] but considers that he has the right to respond to the aggressors”the new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, said on Monday. For his part, the spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs assured that “The Islamic Republic is determined to defend its sovereignty”The next day, Tehran rejected the call from Western countries to renounce any offensive against the Hebrew state.
In the face of these threats, “we are in uncertainty”judges Jonathan Piron, historian specializing in Iran for the Belgian think tank Etopia, interviewed by franceinfo. The next few days will be decisive for the future of the region. The outcome of the ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel, which are due to resume on Thursday in Qatar, could reshuffle the cards. For his part, US President Joe Biden estimated on Tuesday that a halt to the fighting in the Gaza Strip could prevent an Iranian attack against Israel.
“I doubt that the negotiations will result in a ceasefire”maintains Jonathan Piron. According to the specialist, theHamas wants a halt to the long-term fighting, while it is “out of the question” for Benjamin Netanyahu. If the talks do not lead to any agreement, it is “highly probable” that a response from Tehran will take place soon, believes Jonathan Piron. “In this configuration, it is difficult to imagine how Iran could not respond.”after the death of the leaders of two allied groups, adds David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at IRIS and editor-in-chief of the journal Strategic Orientscontacted by franceinfo.
The form of this replica is however difficult to predict, according to specialists. “Iran may not have yet decided definitively on the timing and nature of the response”reports David Rigoulet-Roze. Especially since several international actors are trying to avoid an escalation between Tel Aviv and Tehran. “The United States is sending messages to Iran to avoid retaliation, while Russian intermediaries are going to Iran to calm things down”assures the expert.
If this response takes place, it would not be the first time that Iran has directly targeted the Hebrew state.In April, after a deadly raid on an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria, also blamed on Israel, Tehran carried out an unprecedented attack on Israeli soil. More than 300 drones and missiles were launched, but almost all were intercepted, according to the Israeli army.
According to David Rigoulet-Roze, Iran could strike again “directly” Israel, while relying on its allies in the region, such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. “There reply should probably be dual”considers the expert. An observation shared by Jonathan Piron. “We can expect a much more coordinated attack [entre Téhéran et ses alliés] than last April”warns the researcher.
“Coordinated strikes can saturate the Iron Dome” Israeli, warns Jonathan Piron. This defense system, which can shoot down missiles or rockets in mid-flight within a radius of 4 to 70 kilometers, protects the Hebrew state. In the event that it weakens, missiles could crash on Israeli soil.
“The Zionist regime will certainly receive the answer to this crime at the appropriate time and place”threatened the Revolutionary Guards at the beginning of August. The Israeli cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa “are among the targets”the ultra-conservative Iranian daily said at the same time Kayhanquoted by the Hebrew newspaper Times of IsraelIran’s representation to the UN, for its part, said it expected its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah strikes in “depth” Israeli territory, and “not limited to military targets”.
These remarks should, however, be put into perspective, according to Iran specialist historian Jonathan Piron. “Targeting these areas means targeting civilians, and in this case Israel would respond in kind.“, he judges. “Such an attack would trigger an escalation and generalization of the conflict, which is not in Iran’s interest.”According to the researcher, in the event of a generalized conflict, Iran “will lose”since Israel has the army “the strongest in the Middle East”in addition to support from the United States and weapons supplied by several Western countries.
“During the last attack [en avril]Iranian missiles were intercepted or crashed, but we know that [Téhéran] has more powerful missiles, insists Jonathan Piron. However, their number and type remain unknown.” These missiles could be more destructive than those previously launched into Israel. Iran is therefore banking on this uncertainty to dissuade the Hebrew state from opening a new front by striking its territory, which would lead to an conflagration of the region.