She assures him: she has changed. Marked by the debate between the failed rounds of 2017, where she appeared unsure of her calculations, Marine Le Pen reviewed her copy in 2022. Exit leaving the European Union or retiring at 60 for everyone. This time, the National Rally candidate in the presidential election is betting everything on her proposals on purchasing power… and on a program that she claims to be in balance. What is it really ? Franceinfo has deciphered its proposals.
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The principle of economic patriotism
The Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have reminded us of the flaws in globalization, with shortages, delays, price increases… Marine Le Pen therefore proposes to set up “economic patriotism” and “localism” for “reindustrialize and produce wealth in France”. Questioned by franceinfo, his chief of staff, Renaud Labaye, recognizes that“we can’t relocate everything”. He ensures that a focus will be put on “industry”the products necessary for the “sovereignty” and the sectors to “high added value”. A project very similar to that of “France Relance”, set up by Emmanuel Macron in 2020. “We can’t deny that wanting to relocate strategic sectors was a good idea”, recognizes Renaud Labaye. However, he judges that the amount of one billion euros allocated by the government to encourage relocation is “too weak”.
Will Lepenist relocation only take place within our borders, without taking into account our European neighbours? Impossible, according to HASnne-Sophie Alsif, chief economist at BDO France, an economic consulting firm. On the one hand, because “France is a very small market, less attractive for companies than the European Union”. On the other handbecause “value chains already exist at European level”with a breakdown of the different stages of production, according to the economic efficiency of each country and the skills available there. Producing entirely on our territory would generate much higher costs, therefore a price more important for the consumer. “Links with other EU countries will be possible”tempers the adviser of the candidate RN, who nevertheless considers that in “breaking the vicious circle of relocations-loss of jobs-reduction of purchasing power, the French will find room to buy products whose price will have been a little higher”.
The RN candidate also wants to reduce the French contribution to the European Union budget by “five billion euros”. Problem: the contribution of each member country is fixed according to identical rules, for seven years. In theory, France is committed until 2027. This would not prevent the candidate, if elected, from starting negotiations before this date, assures her team. Some countries, such as the United Kingdom or the Netherlands, have already succeeded in obtaining rebates: the probability of a rebate is therefore judged “completely possible” by certain economists, such as Eulalia Rubio, researcher at the Jacques-Delors Institute, requested by TF1. On the other hand, it seems to him “impossible” that it is of the magnitude hoped for by the RN. But if France does not pay the full contribution due, it will face prosecution and sanctions, including the end of the generous Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies, from which French farmers largely benefit.
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Marine Le Pen’s economic patriotism does not stop there. The far-right candidate wants to establish a “national priority” in access to public contracts. But this measure would violate European competition law, believes the Terra Nova Foundation, labeled as close to the center-left. This decision would result “by raising prices for the public authorities first, and then for the taxpayer or the user”according to the think tank.
Measures for purchasing power
Marine Le Pen’s campaign largely revolved around her promise to restore purchasing power to “forgotten” Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term. However, his program multiplies the proposals that benefit the portfolio of the wealthiest, at least as much as that of the working classes.
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The candidate thus promises to “reduce VAT from 20% to 5.5%” on energy products, in particular fuels. Which would be equivalent to “subsidize well-to-do households who consume a lot of fuel because they have large vehicles”explains Mathieu Plane, economist at theFrench observatory of economic conditions (OFCE). Similarly, the 15% reduction in toll rates would benefit all motorists. “LThe motorway is usually used for long journeys (…) and more rarely for daily journeys of the home-to-work type”further points out Terra Nova.
Unlike many of its competitors, who had chosen to increase the minimum wage to improve the purchasing power of the most precarious workers, Marine Le Pen wants to encourage companies to increase by 10% salaries below three times the amount of the minimum wage (4,947 euros gross, or more than 1,760 euros above the median salary) by exempting this increase from employer contributions. But the Institut Montaigne, a liberal think tank, considers that this exemption would above all create a windfall effect: it would benefit companies that had already planned to increase wages without leading to new increases.
What about the removal of VAT on a “hundreds of basic necessities (…) as long as inflation is one point higher than growth”? It could in theory relieve the budget of the most modest as well as the wealthiestbut he is complicated to assess the gain for consumers, because the list of products concerned is not finalized. Marine Le Pen listed on BFM TV “salt, pepper, oil, pasta, sanitary napkins, diapers”. However, most of these items already benefit from 5.5% VAT. The effectiveness of this measure would also depend “the behavior of producers” and distributorswhich could take advantage of the abolition of the tax to increase their prices, explains Brice Fabre, economist at the Institute of Public Policy. In which case, Marine Le Pen could resort to price blocking, assures her chief of staff.
Taxation in favor of the wealthiest
Here again, the fiscal policy of Marine Le Pen’s program would above all benefit the wealthiest and businesses. The candidate thus proposes exemption from income tax for all young workers up to the age of 30, so thats “stay in France and found their family here”. In fact, this measure would mainly concern the wealthiest young people. With an average income of 7,490 euros per year, the vast majority of 18-25 year olds are not subject to income tax. As for 26-30 year olds, their income (16,220 euros on average) “exposes them to a tax burden which is itself very low in the majority of cases”underlines the think tank Terra Nova. “Where the precarious young person will earn almost nothing, the young graduate executive will pocket a few thousand euros and the State will lose a few additional billions.”
The gifts to the wealthiest would also concern taxation on heritage. Marine Le Pen wants to replace the property wealth tax (IFI) with a financial wealth tax, from which the main residence will be exempt. A measure that “will protect the middle classes who sometimes entered the ISF [prédécesseur de l’IFI] because of the simple valuation of a family real estate heritage”assured the candidate for Parisian. Currently, the IFI concerns property assets over 1.3 million euros, from which existing debts must be deducted as well as a 30% reduction on the main residence. In other words, a Frenchman whose real estate assets consist of a main residence worth 1.7 million euros does not pay tax on the latter.
The candidate also plans to reduce inheritance tax. A “textbook case of the empty gift”, according to Terra Nova. And for good reason: like any reform of inheritance rights, this one mainly concerns the wealthiest French people. “85 to 90% of direct line inheritances (from parent to child) are tax exempt”explained in this regard the economist Clément Dherbécourt to franceinfo.
Funding probably underestimated
Criticized on the feasibility of her economic program, Marine Le Pen has published a costing document to detail how she will balance her budget. But his explanations are far from having convinced the economists, who consider for many that the cost of the planned measures is largely underestimated. The Institut Montaigne thus assesses the amount of expenditure at 119.6 billion euros, far from the 68.3 billion forecast. Several of the measures identified as “without budgetary consequences” would also have a real cost for the State, according to economists. “It’s not a finance bill, it’s an order of magnitude of measures”justifies the director of cabinet of Marine Le Pen.
The revenues that would offset the expenses identified by the candidate are also unclear. The fight against fraud is thus supposed to bring in 15 billion euros. But “wanting to fully recover the amount linked to the fraud is illusory”recalls Xavier Timbeau, certain parameters being difficult to control (cash payments, overtime, etc.). “We can hope to recover seven billion euros from social fraud, but not before 2027. (…) As for tax evasion, going beyond 5 billion euros seems complicated to me”believes the lobbyist Agnes Verdier-Molinie in The Parisian. At the National Rally, Renaud Labaye bets on “a dedicated ministry and an “political will” to achieve the goal.
Some recipes, such as the forecast that “the sharp drop in immigration will make it possible to reduce many expenses linked to insecurity”estimated at two billion euros, seem even more vague. “It is an estimate of what the drop in crime will bring, there will be savings on the budget of translators in the courts or on the damage to police cars for example”explains Renaud Labaye.