The National Rally (RN) won the first round of the French legislative elections on Sunday with historic results. Ahead of the second round, which will take place on July 7, “Le Devoir” spoke with Julien Robin, a doctoral student at the University of Montreal and an expert in French politics.
How does the second round of the French legislative elections work?
At the end of the first round, all candidates who obtained more than 12.5% of the votes in a constituency are qualified for the second round, Julie Robin explains from the outset. In general, it is the two candidates who had the most votes who obtain the necessary suffrage, but it is possible that more candidates qualify. We say that the constituency will have “triangular” or “quadrangular” elections when three or four candidates are eligible for the second round. Last Sunday, 306 of the 577 constituencies qualified more than two candidates.
On the day of the second round, voters return to vote and the candidate who obtained the most votes is elected.
Why do the RN’s main rivals want to avoid triangular contests?
In triangular elections, the fear for the parties is that voters will divide their votes between the second and third place candidates, thus leaving the field open to the RN.
For the past 50 years, left and right parties in France have occasionally joined forces during elections and formed a “republican front” to prevent the RN from gaining power. According to Mr. Robin, this is what is happening now.
To block the RN, the leaders of its main rivals have demanded that the candidates from their parties who came in third place in the first round withdraw from the second round themselves. However, they cannot demand this, since the candidates are sovereign with regard to their own candidacies. Some refuse to do so, still hoping to be elected.
Candidates had until July 2 to withdraw. More than 210 candidates indicated they would not participate in the second round, leaving about 100 three-way elections for the second round on Sunday.
Does withdrawing from a constituency ensure the defeat of the RN?
No. Many voters, seeing their candidate erased from the ballot papers, decide not to vote, or to vote “blank”. The ideologies within the Republican Front are very different and sometimes contradictory. Voters will therefore not necessarily vote for the candidate hoped for by the opponents of the RN.
Mr. Robin gives the example of the Calvados department. The former Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, came second in the first round and the candidate who came third withdrew to make way for her. But since she did not achieve unanimous support during her term, it is possible that some citizens, who would not normally have voted for the RN, will decide to vote against her.
Withdrawal is a strategy that “can work,” according to the expert, but it depends on several external factors, such as the identity of the person who withdrew and that of the person who remains.
What are the long-term impacts of a major wave of withdrawals?
More than 200 candidates withdrew from the second round. Voters who had voted for these candidates find themselves in a rather disappointing situation, where they feel obliged to vote for a candidate for whom they would not ordinarily have voted. This “electoral fatigue” can weigh heavily and cause a certain weariness towards the electoral process.
On the side of RN voters, such a wave of withdrawals supports the idea that the system “works against them” and that the other parties are ready to do anything to maintain the proper functioning of this system.