what could the Israeli response look like after the missile attack carried out by Iran?

Some of the 200 missiles ballistic Iranians were still flying over the black skies of Israel on the evening of Tuesday 1 October, when Benjamin Netanyahu was already brandishing the threat. By attacking his country for the second time in almost six months, “Iran made a serious mistake, and it will pay for it,” declared the Israeli Prime Minister. In a martial tone, he then added: “We will stick to what we have set: whoever attacks us, we attack.” Franceinfo takes stock of the possible response from the Jewish state.

A response “without waiting” or “by surprise” ?

In a speech broadcast Wednesday morning on X, the spokesperson for the Israeli army was careful not to give the slightest clue about the timetable for the response. “We will respond when, where and how we decide.” Daniel Hagari simply said.

A specialist in security issues in the Middle East, Shir Mor believes that “It’s only a matter of days, or even hours.” HASFormer Israeli army military intelligence officer, Raphaël Jerusalmy identifies two options : a response “quickly, without waiting” or a response “by surprise, in a few days”. In mid-April, in what was considered Tehran’s first direct military attack on Israeli territory since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, five days passed between the dispatch of more than 300 Iranian missiles and drones and the response of the IDF by air.

In practice, notes Ahron Bregman, researcher at King’s College London, “Israel often strikes when the iron is hot.” The Israeli secret service specialist was “so surprised to see this [mercredi] morning that the planes had not yet taken off”.

The researcher goes even further : “I detect some hesitation on the Israeli side. I’m sure there is massive pressure on Netanyahu, particularly from Washington and the French government, not to do too much so as not to trigger a regional war.” It is that, this time again, “the answer also depends on Washingtonconfirms Raphaël Jerusalmy. The question being asked in the United States is: do they want to participate? VWould they at least assist Israel? Or do they want to let Israel do it?”

Oil and nuclear installations, privileged targets ?

Israel knows it : a muscular response on Iranian soil could lead to much more devastating consequences. But not reacting at all, or too weakly, could also weaken deterrence. Which would make Israel and other countries more vulnerable to future Iranian attacks. Before deciding its response, Israel must also consider the interests of its Arab partners, such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. “PeNo matter how much countries in the region may hate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, they hate the Iranian government even more.”analyzes Steven Cook, Middle East analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, in the columns of Wall Street Journal.

Israel could therefore decide to target Iranian strategic infrastructure as a priority, starting with the ports that are tactical targets due to the commercial and military activities that take place there. Oil facilities and power plants could also be targeted, continues Ahron Bregman. This type of strike would have several advantages : “They will be highly visible, have a psychological impact and will strengthen Israel’s deterrence in the Middle East.”

To the list of potential targets, the specialist adds nuclear infrastructure. “If Israel n“We cannot destroy Iranian nuclear facilities alone, it could cause considerable damage.” he assures. This is what former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett demands. “We must act now to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its major energy facilities and cripple this terrorist regime forever”urges the former leader on

To achieve this, Israel could opt for “a traditional military attack” Or “a cyberattack closer to that used against Hezbollah’s pagers and walkie-talkies by adding explosives to the devices”detailed Malcolm Davis, defense strategy analyst, on CNN. Although the Islamic Republic of Iran denies wanting to acquire a bomb, its nuclear program continues to gain momentum.

Senior leaders of the Islamic regime targeted ?

The Revolutionary Guards explain that they have “aimed at the heart” of Israel, Tuesday evening, to avenge the elimination of several senior officials of Hezbollah (including Hassan Nasrallah), but also of Hamas (including Ismaïl Haniyeh). In the same way as it did in Lebanon, Israel could once again consider targeting several cadres of the Islamic regime. “The elimination of key leaders in retaliation is indeed a viable option,” confirmed Shir Mor, Iran specialist at the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) Verona.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent remarks suggest that targeted assassinations of the Islamic Republic’s leaders are a real possibility.”

Researcher Shir Mor

at franceinfo

We saw it in Lebanon, “IIsrael has reestablished its targeted killing operations which had not been active for years.” “Of bottom to top of the hierarchy, lots of G’ssupporters of the Revolution have been on a list for a long time”, insists Raphaël Jerusalmy. Ahron Bregman is more measured : “All options are on the table. But such an act, the assassination of Iranian leaders, would guarantee a strong Iranian reaction that could lead to all-out war. But who knows ?”