what consequences for Gabriel Attal in the event of defeat of the Renaissance list?

If Jordan Bardella and the RN seem assured of finishing in the lead on Sunday in the vote, the challenge for the majority is to know the extent of the defeat. How to govern and profoundly reform, without a majority in the Assembly, in the face of oppositions energized by the result of the European elections?

Six days before the European elections, the Prime Minister is working hard to try to mobilize the Macronist electoral base and try to limit the damage. Guest of franceinfo Monday June 3, Gabriel Attal was, for example, in a meeting on Saturday alongside his candidate Valérie Hayer and he repeated in every tone that “nothing is decided”. This is normal, but it is quite wrong since pole position seems assured for Jordan Bardella. The far-right party will come out on top on Sunday, as in 2019 and in 2014 for that matter.

The stake for the majority is to know if it will suffer a simple defeat, if Valérie Hayer reduces the gap a little; a real beating, the one predicted by the latest polls where she only received half the score of her opponent from the RN (around 16% against 32%). Even a frank humiliation in the event that the socialist Raphaël Glucksmann relegates her to third place.

A clear defeat would not necessarily result in an early departure for Matignon. This has never happened in the past. Several Prime Ministers, such as Jean-Pierre Raffarin in 2004 or Manuel Valls in 2014, suffered severe failures in the European elections without being replaced. In the majority, no one envisages a major upheaval before the Olympic Games. It is afterwards, in the fall, that the major maneuvers will begin in the run-up to the 2027 presidential election. But for the Prime Minister, the immediate consequence of a heavy defeat would rather be to see his room for political maneuver diminish. reduce further. He risks finding himself a little more in the hands of a right that could bring him down by presenting a motion of censure, perhaps during the budget in the fall. How can we continue to govern sustainably and carry out profound reforms, without a majority in the Assembly and in the face of opposition energized by the result of the European elections?

A problem that is all the more complex to resolve, especially if the far right triumphs on Sunday and camps at the gates of power. When Gabriel Attal was appointed to Matignon in January, many in the majority were pleased to have found the anti-Bardella weapon. If the RN exceeds 30% of the votes, the weapon in question will more resemble a cap gun. Enough to fuel doubts within the majority. Especially since the Prime Minister’s popularity rating remains, for the moment, very high without his camp benefiting in the slightest at the polls.