An inevitable escalation? The head of Hamas’ political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran on Wednesday, July 31, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced. The Palestinian leader had just attended the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president, Massoud Pezeshkian, when he was hit at night by a strike attributed to Israel. “The assassination of leader Ismail Haniyeh is a cowardly act that will not go unanswered,” immediately warned Hamas. His allies, starting with the Iranian president, have assured that they will “to regret to the terrorist invaders their cowardly act.” Yemen’s Houthis have denounced “a heinous terrorist crime”, while Lebanese Hezbollah said it was determined “to confront the Zionist enemy.”
At this stage, Israel has not made any direct comment on the death of Ismail Haniyeh. However, the Jewish state had claimed responsibility, a few hours earlier, for the death of the high-ranking Hezbollah officer Fouad Chokr, killed in a strike on a building in Beirut, Lebanon. According to Israel, the victim was “THE commander responsible for the Majdal Shams massacre”, four days earlier, when a rocket fire came from Lebanon caused the death of twelve children in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on Wednesday evening: “severe blows dealt [aux ennemis d’Israël] the last days”. Is this chain of events likely to lead to a more intense regional war? What consequences could it have on the conflict in the Gaza Strip? Elements of an answer.
“It is our duty to avenge the blood that was shed on the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran”assured Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shortly after the announcement of the Palestinian leader’s death. Since the Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, this is not the first time that Tehran has been targeted by the Hebrew state, nor that it has promised retaliation. In April, after a deadly raid on an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria, also attributed to Israel, Iran carried out an unprecedented attack on Israeli soil. “More than 300 drones and missiles” were then launched, and almost all intercepted, according to the Israeli army.
After the death of Ismail Haniyeh, “Iran is unlikely to react in the same way”estimated David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris). “In Syria, the main leaders of the Al-Quds Force [unité d’élite des Gardiens de la Révolution] had been killed. Yesterday, no Iranians were kill”he points out to franceinfo. However, “even if the attack is not of the same nature, there will necessarily be a response”the researcher believes.
“For Iran, the issue is not so much the death of Ismail Haniyeh as the place where it took place. An attack in the heart of Tehran is a humiliation for the country, because it violates its sovereignty.”
David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at Iristo franceinfo
A possible response from Tehran could take the form of attacks against specific targets. “Iran could plan large-scale attacks abroad, or even use a Palestinian proxy in Israel to carry out a targeted operation,” as he has done in the past, points out David Rigoulet-Roze. In September 2023, the sulphurous Israeli Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, had thus escaped a foiled attack by a group remote-controlled by Iran, reported the newspaper Israel Hayom.
Iran could also respond by relying on its nebula of armed groups in the region. “Unlike in April, the Iranian reaction this time will probably involve other groups from the resistance axis,” says researcher Abdolrasool Divsallar, on X. “Israel struck Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas at the same time”he points out.
The death of Ismail Haniyeh is a major blow for Hamas, which was already in mourning following the death of Saleh al-Arouri, its number 2, in January in Beirut. The list of leaders of the Islamist group killed by the Jewish state in recent years was already long. In 2002, Salah Shehadeh, founder of Hamas’ armed wing, was assassinated during a raid in Gaza. Two years later, Abdel Aziz al-Rantissi, one of the organization’s senior leaders, was also killed in Gaza..
Once again, “Hamas will overcome this crisis”a leader of the movement assured AFP on Wednesday. Israel “assassinated great leaders, such as the founder of the movement, Sheikh Ahmed Yassine [mort en 2004], and this has only increased the power of Hamas”argued the official.
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“Despite his title as political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh is replaceable,” Joost Hiltermann, a regional specialist at the International Crisis Group, told the New York Times. “Hamas will survive”he assures, arguing that the situation should not degenerate so much “that the general interest of Iran is not harmed.”
For Hugh Lovatt, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, nothing is less certain. This “extremely traumatic event (…) could embolden hardliners” within Hamas, he emphasizes to AFP.
Israel has said in recent months that it is prepared for a wider war, particularly with Lebanon. As early as April, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said his country was approaching “of an open war”. In such a scenario, the Hebrew state will act against Hezbollah. “in all the Lebanon” and will conquer”large areas of southern Lebanon to create a security buffer zone” that it will control. Since the attacks of October 7, more than 7,000 exchanges of fire have already been carried out on the border between the two countries, points out Haaretz.
Such an escalation could have serious consequences for the Jewish state. Hezbollah has more than 150,000 long-range rockets and missiles, according to HaaretzThe group is also said to have a large stockpile of ballistic, anti-aircraft, anti-tank and anti-ship missiles. This equipment could be capable of overwhelming Israel’s air defense system, the Iron Dome, and hitting civilian infrastructure. Israelis have already started buying batteries in case of power outages, the newspaper reports.
The development of a front in northern Israel could have repercussions in the Gaza Strip. “The conflict could be less intense”anticipates Nimrod Goren, researcher at the Middle East Institute, to franceinfo. After ten months of war, Hamas “has limited retaliatory capabilities” And “has lost a lot of resources”, recalls the researcher. “He will no longer be able to strike Israeli cities as he was able to do at the beginning of the conflict.”
“The fighting in the main cities of the Gaza Strip is over, the war has entered a phase of lesser intensity. Many Israeli military personnel are calling for more resources for northern Israel.”
Nimrod Goren, researcher at the Middle East Instituteto franceinfo
Faced with these prospects, Benjamin Netanyahu could choose to temporize.By refusing to comment on Ismail Haniyeh’s death, Israel is giving itself the opportunity to deny responsibility. It does not want to push Iran or its allies into an immediate response.”analyzes Nimrod Goren.
The Israeli government must also deal with public opinion, which is pushing it to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of the hostages. “The families will demand accountability for taking the risk of jeopardizing any possibility of finalizing an agreement while negotiations were on the verge of being concluded,” adds David Rigoulet-Roze. What future, then, for this diplomatic solution? US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is involved in the negotiations for a truce, said the United States was not “involved” in the death of the Hamas leader. “The best way to lower the temperature everywhere is to establish a ceasefire Gaza”he insisted.