what changes does the arrival of Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky at the head of the kyiv armed forces change?

The situation is “extremely complex”. For his first visit as commander of the armed forces to the front in eastern Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky made some less than reassuring remarks on Wednesday February 14. The senior officer recognizes that his soldiers are in difficulty, particularly in the town of Avdiïvka where the Russians have been on the offensive since October 10. “The operational situation is extremely difficult and tense,” he underlines in a message published on his Telegram account on Wednesday. “We do everything possible to preventher the enemy to advance on our territory and to hold our positions.

After its summer counter-offensive in the Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts in the summer of 2023, the kyiv army is on the defensive. The new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, who replaced the very popular and iconic General Zaluzhny on February 8, has the difficult task of preparing an action plan “realistic”, demanded by Volodymyr Zelensky, for the year 2024. Faced with a frozen front and more numerous and better armed Russian soldiers, the commander in chief Oleksandr Syrsky has limited room for maneuver to break the military impasse and meet the objectives set by the presidency.

A “natural candidate” for the position

The appointment of this former Red Army soldier as head of the Ukrainian armed forces does not come as a surprise to Oleksiy Hontcharenko, MP and member of European Solidarity, interviewed by franceinfo. “He stood out as a natural candidate for this position,” explains the elected representative of the Rada. Crowned with numerous feats of arms since the start of the invasion, Oleksandr Syrsky gained a reputation as an outstanding tactician who routed the Russians.“This is the man who won the battle of kyiv (…) and planned the victorious counter-offensives in Kherson and Kharkiv in 2022,” justifies Oleksiy Hontcharenko.

After almost two years of fighting, the former commander of the ground forces also has a reputation as an inflexible officer, nicknamed the “butcher” by some of his soldiers, as reported by the Ukrainian press agency RBK-Ukraïna. The nickname seems exaggerated in the eyes of Thibault Fouillet, scientific director of the Institute of Strategy and Defense Studies at Jean-Moulin Lyon III University. “This reputation of a man who would not seek economy of means is partly distorted by reality”he specifies.

Subordinate to General Valery Zaloujny since 2021, the new number 1 has until now commanded the army and implemented the directives of his superior. “If Valery Zalouzhny thought about the Ukrainian strategy since the beginning of the invasion, it is good Oleksandr Syrsky who put it into practice”insistsmilitary historian Frederik Mertens, analyst at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS), the Netherlands. Furthermore, due to a lack of strong forces in his ranks, the new commander-in-chief “will not be able to ‘waste’ soldiers on deadly assaults in the coming months. Ukraine can’t afford it anyway.” continues the specialist. Volodymyr Zelensky revealed in December that the general staff wanted to enlist 500,000 additional soldiers to replenish the ranks of an army decimated by the fighting.

Regain “offensive potential”

According to researchers interviewed by franceinfo, the Ukrainian army, tested by the failure of its counter-offensive, is no longer able to launch a new large-scale attack. The new leader of the Ukrainian forces also inherits a delicate situation on a material level. VSgiven the delay in the delivery of Western weapons and the low stock of shells“kyiv has limited military resources”, recalls Tim Sweijs, research director at HCSS.

“I expect the Ukrainians to remain on the defensive for now, especially since they lack the artillery ammunition to go on the offensive.”

Frederik Mertens, strategic analyst and military historian

at franceinfo

This situation forces the new commander-in-chief to procrastinate by “now a defensive strategy in order to regenerate future offensive potential”, confirms Thibault Fouillet. But this remobilization period will take time. According to Tim Sweijs, “the next four to six months will be devoted to rearmament, re-training” and preparation operations combining artillery, armor and infantry. Offensives that aim to break through enemy fortifications. “But these require a high level of preparation and coordination,” continues Frederik Mertens.

It is easier to make a “static defense with poorly trained troops than achieving a breakthrough” of a fortified line. For several months, the Russians have set up a defensive network across the entire front line, slowing down the Ukrainians’ advance.