Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has already significantly strengthened India’s diplomatic influence in ten years in power, intends during his third term to make the country a key player in the Global South.
The leader has positioned himself as one of the main spokespeople for this loosely structured group, and five more years at the helm of the world’s most populous country should help him rank among the most powerful leaders on the planet. , despite a reduced parliamentary majority following the legislative elections.
The 73-year-old prime minister is campaigning for India, which has overtaken China in terms of population and has atomic weapons, to obtain a permanent membership seat on the UN Security Council.
Eager to find a counterweight to Beijing’s military and economic power, Western countries are taking great care of the South Asian giant, which has become the fifth largest economy in the world and a client of choice for arms and aircraft exports. .
And this despite the concern of rights defenders who denounce growing authoritarianism and a decline in freedoms.
“Mr Modi will be one of the most important leaders on the world stage, with three electoral victories to his name,” predicts Harsh V Pant, professor of international relations at King’s College London. “He has set big ambitions for himself and for India and is unlikely to compromise.”
Mr. Modi was able to take advantage of India’s presidency of the G20 in 2023 to restore his image abroad. He also hopes to capitalize on the Cricket World Cup organized last year by his country to win the organization of the 2036 Summer Olympics.
Here is what we can expect from a third mandate from Narendra Modi on the diplomatic level:
United States and Europe
India is part, along with the United States, Japan and Australia, of the Quad, an informal military alliance created in response to China’s growing ambitions in the Asia-Pacific region.
President Joe Biden called the relationship with New Delhi “a major partnership of the 21ste century” and touted “common values” during a meeting in Washington last year.
In February, the United States approved the sale of high-tech drones for $4 billion to India, which is modernizing its defense in the face of the might of China’s armed forces.
Last year, American justice indicted an Indian for planning an assassination in New York, with the consent of the Indian intelligence agency.
India is also getting closer to European countries, notably France with whom it is negotiating new defense contracts worth several billion euros, including Rafale fighter planes and Scorpène submarines.
Mr. Modi was the guest of honor at the July 14 military parade in Paris last year.
China
If China is India’s great rival, if it remains its second largest trading partner.
Beijing and New Delhi are also both members, alongside Moscow and others, of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional group.
But relations between the two countries have soured since a clash on their shared border in the Himalayas in June 2020, where 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese soldiers were killed.
Territorial claims remain a constant source of tension in this area, where tens of thousands of soldiers face each other.
The Indian government has invested billions of dollars on its borders and increased its military spending by 13% last year. However, this only represents a quarter of China’s military budget.
For Jayant Prasad, a former Indian ambassador, “conflicting relations” will continue. “India, with its friends, will try to curb China’s assertiveness,” he said.
Global South
Narendra Modi this week called New Delhi a “strong and important voice from the South”.
Host last year of the G20 summit, India worked to welcome into its ranks the African Union (AU), a strong signal for Africa which helped to consolidate the country’s position as a leader countries of the South.
India is also one of the founding members of Brics, an organization representing emerging powers, notably Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa.
Russia
Russia and India have enjoyed good relations since the Cold War and Russia remains by far its largest arms supplier.
India, which avoided explicitly condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and abstained from voting on UN resolutions targeting Moscow, has also become one of the main outlets for oil sold at reduced prices. by Russia.
Mr Modi in March congratulated Vladimir Putin on his re-election and said he looked forward to deepening their “special” relationship.
Pakistan
Mr Modi’s government has refused any contact with its historic rival Pakistan after accusing Islamabad of engaging in “cross-border terrorism”.
India and Pakistan, since their independence in 1947, have claimed sovereignty over the entirety of Kashmir. This Himalayan territory was the cause of two of the three wars between the two countries.
New Delhi accuses Islamabad of supporting separatists, which Pakistan refutes.
In 2015, shortly after his first election, Narendra Modi made a surprise visit to the Pakistani city of Lahore, but relations have since collapsed following the revocation of Indian Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status in 2019.
In March, Mr. Modi still congratulated his Pakistani counterpart Shehbaz Sharif on his return to power, which was interpreted as a gesture of goodwill and revived hopes of a thaw between these countries, which both have ‘nuclear weapon.