The former far-right leader arrived in Brasilia on Thursday, after a three-month exile in the United States
He had left his country disgusted and depressed by his defeat against Lula. ATfter a three-month exile in the United States, it was a Jair Bolsonaro determined to redo politics who arrived in Brazil on Thursday March 30. “I’m not going to lead the opposition in any way, I’m going to participate [à la vie politique] of my party, bringing my experience”, he told CNN Brazil on Wednesday evening, before taking off from Orlando airport. The ex-president had already declared last week his intention to “travel the country”And “to do politics” to defend ultra-conservative values in Brazil.
MBut justice could come and thwart his plans. Returning to Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro knows that he is the target of no less than five investigations, and that he even faces prison in the long term. Overview of what to expect when he returns home.
A reception with great fanfare that worries the police
Jair Bolsonaro arrived in Brasilia on Thursday morning. This return was nervously awaited in the city, where the military police had to ensure that no gathering took place. She “will be ready to quickly close access to the Esplanade des Trois-Pouvoirs [au cœur de la capitale] like at the airporthad warned the secretary of public security in Brasilia.
The day promised to be tense, since the supporters of the former far-right leader were called on social networks to come and welcome him in large numbers at the airport, even if it is not expected that their champion take the floor. A member of his party, Gustavo Gayer, called for “solid support” at the airport for “pave the way for a return of Bolsonaro to the presidency”.
Upon his arrival, Jair Bolsonaro must go to the premises of his party, the Liberal Party (PL), under escort of military police vehicles. He must be welcomed there by the leader of the PL, ex-ministers, deputies and allied senators. The party, which made wide publicity around the arrival of the former head of state, places great hopes in his return: Jair Bolsonaro must even become the honorary president of the political formation, which will allow you to receive a monthly sum of nearly 7,000 euros.
While his successor at the head of Brazil is barely recovering from pneumonia, the arrival of Jair Bolsonaro is bad news for the political left. “Lula will now have to govern with an organized opposition, it could make a big difference”anticipates with AFP Jairo Nicolau, political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
Five legal investigations and possible prosecutions
The far-right ex-president is under five Supreme Court investigations. Four of them relate to alleged crimes committed during his term of office, between 2019 and 2022, and a fifth to suspicions of incitement to take part in the riots of January 8 in Brasilia.
One of the investigations was opened in 2020, when his former justice minister accused him of interfering with federal police to protect relatives suspected of corruption. He is also under investigation for disinformation about the electronic ballot box system or about Covid-19. As president, Jair Boslonaro could only be tried by the Supreme Court. Having become a simple citizen again, the cases which concern him can be handled by the courts of first instance, where the procedures are generally shorter.
As he has also recognized, the former head of state could even be imprisoned on a preventive basis. “An arrest warrant can arrive without warning”he confided in February to the daily wall street journal (article in English). In Brazil, a convicted person can only be imprisoned when all his appeals have been exhausted, unless he represents a danger to society, or risks compromising the investigation and destroying evidence.
In the case “very unlikely” where Jair Bolsonaro would be sentenced to the maximum sentences for all the offenses attributed to him, he could spend nearly 40 years behind bars, according to Carla Junqueira, a lawyer and doctor of law from the University of Sao Paulo. In any case, the various appeals before the Brazilian authorities will take time, and the final judgments will not be rendered in the short term.
A risk of ineligibility
Jair Bolsonaro is also under sixteen investigations at the Superior Electoral Court. He could be sentenced to eight years of ineligibility, which would prevent him from running for president in 2026. The ex-president is notably implicated for his repeated verbal attacks against the electronic ballot box system.
Some complaints also denounce the use of the state apparatus for electoral purposes. His government, for example, had Congress approve an increase in social minima a few months before the election last October, which did not, however, allow him to win against left-wing president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
The most advanced investigation, which according to specialists represents a real threat to his political future, relates to a meeting with ambassadors last July in Brasilia. Faced with diplomats from around forty countries, Jair Bolsonaro had shown a PowerPoint presentation full of false information on electronic ballot boxes, which earned him suspicion of abuse of power.
The Saudi Jewelery Affair
The ex-president is finally under pressure because of another scandal, which made the headlines of the press: He is accused of having smuggled into Brazil jewelry donated by Saudi Arabia.
The case was brought to light by the daily Estadao, which revealed that a set of diamonds, valued at three million euros and intended for the former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, had been seized by Brazilian customs. These jewels were in the bag of a minister’s assistant who was returning from an official visit to Riyadh in October 2021, and had not been declared beforehand.
Another batch of men’s jewelry arrived in the possession of Jair Bolsonaro, who returned them last week through his lawyers, at the request of the Court of Auditors. Tuesday, Estadao revealed the existence of a third batch, including a Rolex watch set with diamonds, which the former president received during a trip to Saudi Arabia in 2019, and which he would not have returned.
Brazilian law only authorizes the Head of State to keep gifts received from a third country when they are of a very personal nature, or are of low value. For the current Minister of Justice, Flavio Dino, Jair Bolsonaro could be prosecuted for illegal appropriation of public property or for tax evasion. The former president will have to explain himself about the Saudi jewelry to the federal police on April 5, a police source confirmed to AFP on Wednesday.