what are the stakes in the reunion between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden?

While Joe Biden likened Xi Jinping to a “dictator” less than five months ago, the American president and his Chinese counterpart will speak face-to-face on Wednesday, November 15. On the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in San Francisco, in the United States, the two men will have the opportunity to mark, this time, the rapprochement between the two world superpowers. “That the meeting takes place is already a very strong signal.”confirms to franceinfo Valérie Niquet, head of the Asia pole at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).

In an international context complicated by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, this meeting, which takes place a year before the American presidential election, will allow them to discuss “peace and development in the world”, assured Beijing on Monday. A vast menu, of which Franceinfo details the issues.

Probing China’s intentions on Taiwan

The situation on the island of Taiwan, neighboring China, continues to crystallize tensions between the two world powers. The increase in demonstrations of force by the Chinese army off the coast of Taiwan worries the United States, as the presidential election on the island looms in January. On the Chinese side, Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, in August 2022, had been very poorly received by Beijing, which had suspended most of the regular military communications with the United States.

“In view of this election, China wants to give a less aggressive image to convince the Taiwanese to vote for parties less critical of Beijing”believes Valérie Niquet, even if it is difficult to read Xi Jinping’s policy on this issue. “China’s Taiwan policy is so personalized, in the hands of Xi Jinping, that we have a real question of understanding his intentions”tells France Culture Mathieu Duchâtel, director of the Asia program at the Institut Montaigne.

“Xi Jinping will once again defend the One China policy before President Biden. Because the impassable red line, as the Chinese government has repeatedly said, is the question of Taiwan. !”advance at RFI Gao Zhikai, vice-president of the Center on China and Globalization in Beijing. Joe Biden must reaffirm to China that Washington does not support independence for Taiwan, and that American policy on the matter has not changed.

Renewing a joint dialogue

The crisis in Taiwan has damaged the military relationship between China and the United States. Washington wants a resumption of dialogue. “President [Biden] “is committed to seeing the restoration of military-to-military ties, as he believes it is in the national security interests of the United States.”declared Jake Sullivan, the American national security adviser, to the American channel CBS. “He believes that communication between armies is necessary to ensure that this competition does not escalate into conflict.”

“The United States wants to control any escalation in the military domain, while maintaining vigorous competition in the technological and economic fields, observes Marc Julienne, rresponsible for the China activities of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), on France Culture. MBut China does not distinguish between these areas, as they are interconnected.”

Establish healthy economic competition between the two countries

Washington wants to maintain the greatest possible lead over its competitors by controlling semiconductor exports and American investments in China. Mao Ning, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokespersonurged the United States, Monday, November 13, to “Sincerely respect China’s reasonable concerns and legitimate development rights, rather than only focusing on their own concerns while harming China’s interests. China is not afraid of competition, but we oppose defining Sino-US relations in terms of competition.”

“China does not seek to change the United States, nor should the United States seek to shape or change China.”

Mao Ning, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry

at a press conference

For her part, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre assured that Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will discuss ways to “manage competition responsibly”. The American Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, recalled that her country was not seeking to “dissociate” economically of China, “which would be detrimental” to both countries and “would destabilize the world”.

Trade between Washington and Beijing, which today exceeds $800 billion, is “the cornerstone of relations between the two countries”, insists, on RFI, Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at the University of the People in Beijing. “China needs a normalization of relations with the West and the United States, particularly at the economic level, because its economy is not doing well”, summarizes Valérie Niquet. The figures for the last “Singles’ Day”, the Chinese “Black Friday” which took place on November 11, were not good, reports Reuters, exports fell by 6.4% year-on-year in October, and youth unemployment in cities reached such a worrying level in June (21.3%) that the government decided to no longer publish the figures, assures The world.

Clarifying China’s influence in conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East

The two leaders must address the two major conflicts of the moment: in Ukraine and the Middle East. Before this meeting,Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen declared that his government was “concerned that equipment essential to Russia’s military effort is escaping sanctions [américaines] and are delivered to Russia”. “We have evidence that some Chinese companies, and I’m certainly not saying that the Chinese government knows about it, might be helping to get this equipment and material to Russia, and that some financial institutions might be involved in facilitating this delivery”she noted.

“There has been a lot of talk about the alliance between China and Russia, remark Valérie Niquetbut in reality, it did not massively provide military capabilities to Moscow.”

“Beijing sees Moscow getting bogged down in this conflict and that is not necessarily well received. Some in China are perhaps angry with Vladimir Putin for having launched into this offensive without being sure of succeeding.”

Valérie Niquet, head of the Asia pole at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS)

at franceinfo

During international crises, “China loves to be seen as a major player, but it is very little involved in solving problems. It is first and foremost focused on its own issues, particularly economic and strategic, because it also likes to increase the circle of those who can support it”, analyzes the expert at the FRS. However, Joe Biden could “want to collaborate with China in the humanitarian field” in Gaza, specifies economist Agathe Demarais on France Culture.

Maintain a stable dialogue

In view of the year 2024, crucial in the United States with the presidential election, “the idea is to stabilize the relationship, avoid misunderstandings, maintain communication with China and return to a world without surprises for both camps because it would be a catastrophe for the United States to have a major crisis with China. China in the coming year”says Agathe Demarais on France Culture.

The spokesperson for the White House, Karine Jean-Pierre, also insisted on “the continuing importance of maintaining open lines of communication.”

Confirm CO2 emissions reduction targets

Finally, China and the United States are expected on climate issues. The recent meeting between John Kerry, the American envoy on climate, and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, is a sign of collaboration between the two countries in this area. The two men, moreover, announced that they had found “a deal” on “reducing emissions and where we need to go”.

The meeting between the two countries that are the biggest emitters of CO2 “offers tantalizing hope for climate action”estimates, in a column, Kate Logan, of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a few days before the opening of COP28 in Dubai, on November 30. “A high-level agreement between the United States and China could provide the course change needed to keep global temperatures below 1.5°C” increase compared to the pre-industrial era, she assures.

But, once again, the prospect of the American presidential election calls for caution. “Any progress that could be made by Joe Biden and Xi Jinping could be undone by a Republican administration”warns Agathe Demarais.