Cutting the cord with Russia would not be without consequences for the French economy. As with oil and gas, France has relied for decades on the largest country in the world to supply it with certain raw materials essential to many industries, aeronautics in the lead. But this relationship risks being compromised by the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops.
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While Vladimir Putin’s army continues its offensive, sanctions from the international community are indeed raining down on the Moscow regime. On the French side, the “economic war” declared (then relativized) by the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Lemaire, could well threaten the supply of certain products from the Eastern giant. To see more clearly, Franceinfo lists critical imports, their importance for the French economy and the alternatives considered by manufacturers.
gas and oil
If around 46% of the gas imported by the States of the European Union comes from Russia, the consumption of Russian gas in France is much lower. – and declining for several years. It was around 25% in 2007, according to a Senate briefing report at the time, and it is now around 17%. In the event of a total cut in the three Russian gas pipelines to Europe, France has other partners to turn to, such as Norway or Algeria, which however do not have Russia’s production capacities.
In terms of oil, it is mainly Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan that supply France with black gold, according to INSEE figures. Russian oil accounts for just under 13% of the oil imported into France, but for forms of hydrocarbons that remain difficult to find elsewhere.
“It is above all a dependence on refined products, in particular road diesel, diesel”, detailed to France 2 Nicolas Mazzucchi, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS). A key need for France therefore, which explains why Russian tankers loaded with oil were still allowed to dock in the country’s ports in recent days.
The coal
Even if France has reduced its dependence on fossil fuels, the country remains fond of Russian coal. In 2020, around 30% of the coal imported into France came from Russia, according to figures from the Ministry of Ecological Transition. The rest came mainly from Australia (also around 30%) and the United States (around 10%).
This situation is even more pronounced at European level. In 2021, according to the Eurostat agency, Russia supplied the European Union with 56.1 million tonnes of solid fuels, which represents 46.7% of EU imports in this area.
Industrial metals (aluminum, titanium, etc.)
A quick glance at the register of trade between France and Russia shows that, over the past three years, the products (excluding hydrocarbons) arriving from Russia are mainly iron ores and non-ferrous metals, such as aluminum. Among these metals, we mainly find palladium (which is used in particular to manufacture catalytic converters for cars), titanium (aviation), nickel, cobalt (batteries, wind turbines), tungsten (electronics), platinum or even copper.
“Without these metals, certain French industries could simply no longer ensure their production”explains to franceinfo Sarah Guillou, dDirector of the Innovation and Competition Department of the French Economic Observatory (OFCE). But beware, the French supply is far from being exclusively from Russia. For some sectors, such as aeronautics, the situation is quite clear: the titanium used for French aviation is 50% Russian, reported The gallery (paid item). For the automobile or French electronics, it is a little less clear.
“The dependence on Russian metals is difficult to quantify, emphasizes Sarah Guillou, because the customs figures do not necessarily specify where the raw materials come from. Officially, France imports 3% of its non-ferrous metals from Russia. but this figure is certainly underestimated.” For example, palladium bought in the Netherlands or Switzerland may very well have been produced in Russia, and have changed hands several times.
For the time being, France has taken restrictive measures against Russia, but has not declared an embargo on imports of raw materials. “However, we note that some companies are taking a position vis-à-vis public opinion, or responding to political pressure, and therefore renouncing trade with Russia”, recalls Sarah Guillou. Added to this is the cessation of air links with Russia, which limits the import of certain metals, such as palladium.
“On these markets, there are already very present tensions on prices”, details the specialist in industrial economics. In 2021, the country produced 43% of the palladium produced in the world. The Russian group Rusal is the second industrial aluminum producer in the world. The country is third in nickel ore and the second largest producer of refined nickel.
“If Russia decides to restrict its sales, world prices will rise sharply, alert Sarah Guillou, and inflation on these primary products will inevitably impact the entire production chain.” For manufacturers, it’s time to build up stocks of raw materials, a challenge that smaller companies may find difficult to meet.
According to Sarah Guillou, the importers working with Russia (just under 2,000 in France) have “used to being faced with conflicts, restrictions”. “The big uncertainty, what everyone is trying to estimate, is how long the conflict in Ukraine will last.”