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2024 legislative elections: what are the possible scenarios after Sunday’s vote?
Can the National Rally still obtain an absolute majority at the end of the second round of legislative elections on Sunday 7 July? If not, who will be Prime Minister?
(France 2)
Can the National Rally still obtain an absolute majority at the end of the second round of legislative elections on Sunday 7 July? If not, who will be Prime Minister?
What will the new National Assembly look like after the vote on Sunday, July 7? According to a Harris Interactive-Toluna poll, the National Rally (RN) would be quite far from the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, but would only obtain 190 to 220. Jordan Bardella therefore directly challenged his voters on France 2, proposing “a reasonable alternation”.
The scenario of a grand coalition is also emerging. If the RN does not obtain a clear majority, all the other parties, except La France Insoumise, are considering a government of national unity. It would bring together personalities from the left and right, such as Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure or Xavier Bertrand, without forgetting the outgoing majority. Without an agreement between the parties, France could experience the scenario of deadlock: no clear majority, no reform, and a technical government that deals with current affairs for at least a year.
