Still looking for a Prime Minister, Emmanuel Macron opened a meeting on Tuesday, August 27 “new round of consultations”without the left and without the National Rally, but with the support of “personalities” supposed to help him get out of the impasse. The day before, the head of state brushed aside the Lucie Castets option, refusing to appoint a government from the New Popular Front (NFP) in the name of “institutional stability”In a press release, the tenant of the Elysée Palace affirms that an executive led by the 37-year-old senior civil servant would be “immediately censored” to the National Assembly.
As a second round of negotiations begins, franceinfo takes stock of the different possible scenarios, forty-two days after Emmanuel Macron accepted the resignation of Gabriel Attal, an absolute record since the post-war period.
1 A coalition without LFI and the RN?
During the first round of consultations, “The Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories group, the parties Together for the Republic, MoDem, Horizons, the Radicals and UDI have outlined possible paths for coalition and joint work between different political sensibilities”it is written in the Elysée press release published yesterday evening. It is specified that “The Socialist Party, the ecologists and the communists have not at this stage proposed ways to cooperate with the other political forces” and that“It is now up to them to do it”. Through these lines, Emmanuel Macron seems to want to move towards a grand coalition, bringing together the right and the moderate left. So out goes the National Rally (RN) and La France Insoumise (LFI).
But the various political parties making up the NFP do not seem at all willing to enter a government that does not retain Lucie Castets as Prime Minister. All have also expressed their refusal to continue discussions at the Elysée. “We are not going to continue this circus”Marine Tondelier, the national secretary of the Ecologists, got carried away on franceinfo. Same story from Olivier Faure, the first secretary of the PS, who leaves no door open on the possibility of integrating a right/left government, refusing that the socialists be “the auxiliaries of a dying macronie”even if some of them are nevertheless calling for the resumption of discussions with the head of state.
Furthermore, such a coalition would have the effect of placing the RN and LFI as the only opposition parties likely to represent an alternation during the next electoral meetings.
2 An agreement between LR and Ensemble?
Another possible option for Emmanuel Macron: forming an alliance with Les Républicains. A real red herring, this possibility has continued to come back to the forefront of the political scene since the 2022 legislative elections, when the presidential coalition failed to obtain an absolute majority in the Assembly. By adding the 47 LR deputies and the 166 from the presidential camp, this alliance would obtain 213 seats. More than the 193 seats of the NFP, but not enough to reach the absolute majority of 289 deputies.
This is the solution that Edouard Philippe, president of the Horizons party, had advocated at the beginning of the summer, just after the second round of the legislative elections, saying he was in favour of “a technical agreement” with the right-wing party from which he comes, which would allow “to move forward and manage the affairs of the country for at least one year”. A possibility that also appeals to the right wing of the Renaissance group. “The question is simple: can we agree on the essentials with the LR deputies or will the NFP remain the leading force in the Assembly, with all the consequences that this would have?” wondered Maud Bregeon, deputy of Ensemble des Hauts-de-Seine, on July 9. Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin went even further, assuring on Europe 1 that it would not “would not bother at all” to have “a right-wing prime minister”.
The left wing of the presidential camp, however, seems less convinced. Above all, it remains to obtain the assent of the Republicans. The new president of the LR group in the Assembly, Laurent Wauquiez, clearly wishes to appear as the leader of a constructive political party. To do this, he relies on his “legislative pact”aimed at passing bills through the Assembly and thus “prevent the country from being blocked”However, he rejects any coalition with the Macronists. “We are independent and we will remain so”he hammered home in July. Just like Bruno Retailleau, president of the Republicans in the Senate, who estimated that a “grand coalition” would lead to a “big ‘at the same time'”.
Can they finally be convinced in the face of this situation of impasse that is dragging on? The leading figures of the right are due to be received once again on 28 July at the Elysée.
3 A government of technicians?
Would a less political government team make it possible to counter the impossibility of uniting the parties? To do this, we would have to move towards a government composed of experts and led by a consensual personality, such as a big boss or a senior civil servant, who would oversee ministers chosen on the basis of their skills. “It’s a fallback solution when you can’t take power”deciphers Benjamin Morel, lecturer in public law at the Panthéon-Assas University, in The FigaroIn its recent history, France has not experimented with purely technical government. “The first government of the Fifth Republic of Michel Debré (1959-1962) was however conceived as a government of technicians, with Maurice Couve de Murville in Foreign Affairs and Pierre Messmer in the Armed Forces”relates the historian Jean Garrigues.
Our Italian neighbours have experimented with technical governments on several occasions: the country has had four since the Second World War, the most recent being that of economist Mario Draghi, in place from February 2021 to October 2022, after several weeks of political and economic crisis linked to Covid-19. Far from being confined to managing current affairs, Italian governments composed of experts, “well received initially by the population”are “politics” And “adopt the most important reforms in recent years”however, believes Nicoletta Perlo, lecturer in public law at the University of Toulouse Capitole, whom franceinfo interviewed a few weeks ago on the subject.
In France, such a government would probably also be walking a tightrope: supposed to be politically neutral, it would have to vote on the annual budget, a perilous step which necessarily requires taking a position on the ideological base.
4 A departure of Emmanuel Macron?
After the head of state’s refusal to appoint Lucie Castets to Matignon, the rebels have once again brandished their threat to initiate impeachment proceedings against the head of state, already agitated in mid-August by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party, in a text published in The Sunday Tribune. Considering that Emmanuel Macron “does not recognize the result of the universal suffrage which placed the New Popular Front at the top of the vote”Manuel Bompard, the coordinator of La France Insoumise, announced Monday evening on the social network X that a “a motion of impeachment will be presented by the rebellious deputies to the office of the National Assembly in accordance with article 68 of the Constitution”.
To succeed, this procedure would have to obtain a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly and the Senate, which seems highly unlikely. And even if these conditions were met, the president would then be referred to the High Court, composed of all the deputies and senators. The latter would have to rule, again, by a two-thirds majority.
Faced with the current deadlock, some have wondered about the possibility of Emmanuel Macron resigning. Even if the president were to resign himself to leaving the Elysée – something he has never mentioned – the institutional deadlock would persist, since the Assembly could not be dissolved before July 8, 2025 anyway. Article 12 of the Constitution provides that “no new dissolution may be carried out within the following year [les] elections”. A rule that applies “even if a new president is elected”says Bastien François, professor of political science at the Panthéon-Sorbonne University, interviewed by Release.
5 A status quo that could last?
Seven weeks after the legislative elections that plunged the country into a political impasse, the consultations led by Emmanuel Macron to form a government continue. For François Bayrou, the president of the MoDem, the head of state has committed “a method error” in negotiating a government “with political parties”which according to him has the effect of reinforcing “the control of the parties”preventing a consensus from being reached.
The discussions entered into a “new round of consultations” Tuesday, but no way out seems to be emerging. While waiting to find a way out of this political puzzle, Gabriel Attal, the resigning Prime Minister, remains in place to manage current affairs and must in particular prepare the 2025 budget, which is seriously behind schedule. The head of state told elected officials from Liot’s centrist group on Tuesday that he “well aware of the urgency of the situation”France Télévisions learned from participants.