Talks are continuing to try to achieve a de-escalation in the crisis between Ukraine and Russia. The threats of sanctions too. If Russia “invading the whole country” Where “even much less” that there will be “huge consequences”warned US President Joe Biden on Tuesday, January 25. “We are ready to impose sanctions with massive consequences, which we did not envisage in 2014”during the annexation of Crimea by Russia, added a senior official of the White House *, on condition of anonymity, during a call with journalists. “There is no longer any question of a graduated response. This time, we will start at the top of the scale and we will stay there”he insisted.
An internal assessment of the 2014 US sanctions against Russia, cited by the New York Times*, concluded that these had not led to a Russian withdrawal. The White House therefore seems determined to go further in the event of an incursion and destabilization of power in Ukraine.
“In case of aggression (…), the response will be there and the cost will be very high”, warned Emmanuel Macron in turn on Tuesday, alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The French president will speak on the phone with Vladimir Putin on Friday morning. In the meantime, franceinfo details the various avenues studied to try to bend the Kremlin.
The ban on exports to Russia
According to the senior White House official who spoke with reporters on Tuesday, one of the options being considered is the banning of the export of American technologies to Russian territory. This ban could be extended to “certain foreign-made products that fall under U.S. regulations”he specified.
These options “which we envision with our allies would be a blow to Putin’s ambitions to industrialize his economy”, developed the top official. “It would affect areas like artificial intelligence, quantum computers, defence, aerospace and other key sectors”. White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki had previously discussed possible “unprecedented export control measures”during a press briefing*.
These restrictions would make it difficult to obtain integrated circuits or products containing these components, reports the Associated Press* (AP). What affect the offer of smartphones, tablets, televisions or even machine tools.
The end of dollar transactions
Another threat suggested by Washington: the prohibition for Russian banks to carry out transactions in dollars, while the currency dominates international financial exchanges. Deprived of access to the American banking system, Russian companies could neither buy goods or services, nor pay their staff in dollars.
“The United States implicitly waves the threat of an exclusion from the Swift”the international payment system, recently deciphered Christine Dugoin-Clément for franceinfo. “That would be tantamount to excluding Russia from the international monetary system and bringing it almost to the level of Iran.” Such a particularly heavy measure would deprive Moscow of international revenues linked to the production of gas and oil, a sector which represented on average 43% of the Russian government’s annual income between 2011 and 2020, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration* (EIA).
Sanctions targeting Vladimir Putin’s inner circle
“Yes. I can design it”, replied Joe Biden on Tuesday, to a journalist asking him if he could, within the range of sanctions aimed at Moscow, specifically target Vladimir Putin. A freezing of assets or the prohibition of certain financial transactions are levers already used by the American authorities when they wish to sanction personalities.
A group of American elected officials, led by Republican Representative Jim Banks as head of the Republican Studies Committee (RSC), proposes to launch the sanctions even before a possible Russian offensive and to “directly attack Putin and his network of ‘kleptocrats’ and oligarchs”RSC member Rep. Joe Wilson insisted to the Washington Post*. “We have been calling for these sanctions for years, further delays will lead to war.”
In a bill “on Vladimir Putin’s responsibility”*, elected Republicans are calling for a public report that would describe “the personal wealth of Vladimir Putin and his family members, including his girlfriend”. This information would include “assets, investments, other business interests and relevant beneficial ownership information” of the persons concerned. The text also calls for “Create new mandatory sanctions against ‘kleptocrats’ and prominent political figures in Russia”. According to the washington postthe entire cabinet of Vladimir Putin could thus be subject to sanctions.
European side, “sanctions against people in the immediate circle” of Russian power will perhaps be “the simplest” to be implemented, underlines to franceinfo the specialist in Ukraine Christine Dugoin-Clément, researcher for the “standards and risks” chair at the IAE Paris-Sorbonne Business School, and for the think tank CapEurope.
The hypothesis of a refusal to activate the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline
A sanction is the subject of debate in Europe. Should we, to further punish the Kremlin, target the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany? The question divides, especially within the new German coalition government.
In the case of a “climbing” in Ukraine, the gas pipeline should not work, pleaded on December 12 the ecologist Annalena Baerbock, German Minister of Foreign Affairs. The Minister of Economy and Climate, Robert Habeck, also an environmentalist, had supported this position. A month later, the German Defense Minister, the Social Democrat Christine Lambrecht, made the opposite remarks at the microphone of RBB radio. “We shouldn’t train [Nord Stream 2] in this conflict”insisted the Minister, calling for “resolve this conflict (…) in talks (…) rather than forging a link with projects that have no connection with this conflict”.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was also ambiguous about this. If he mentioned a possible refusal to commission the gas pipeline (planned for this year) in the event of a Russian attack in Ukraine, recalls The worldthe manager also mentioned a purely “private”.
*Links followed by an asterisk refer to pages in English.