Who is responsible for the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea? While the hypothesis of simultaneous accidental failures seem to have been ruled out on Wednesday, the mystery remains about the method used as well as the alleged perpetrator. Here’s what we know so far.
A strategic and ultra-monitored area
The two Nors Stream gas pipelines connect Russia to Germany passing under the Baltic Sea. The three leaks identified are in international waters, off the Danish island of Bornholm between southern Sweden and Poland. A highly guarded area for decades. “In the past, the USSR based spy submarines with special engineering capabilities on the seabed“, recalls the independent naval analyst HI Sutton on Twitter. Since then, the Baltic States have passed to the side of NATO. But the leaks have occurred in international territorial waters where everyone can circulate. “Today, the Russian Navy has the largest fleet of spy submarines in the world. They are based in the Arctic. They would be able to degrade a pipeline in the Baltic“, assures HI Sutton. But he also judged the hypothesis on Tuesday “unlikely“.
A complex sabotage
The operation requires intervention at a depth of 70 meters. “It’s heavy. Damaging two gas pipelines at the bottom of the sea is a significant event, so a state actor is likely“, notes Lion Hirth, professor at the Hertie School in Berlin, implicitly dismissing the terrorist or villainous act. But a competent army knows how to do it. The area is “Perfectly adapted to pocket submarines“, explains to AFP a senior French military official, referring to either the option of combat swimmers sent to lay charges, or that of the mobile mine or underwater drone.
“The drone starts from a submarine which can stay several nautical miles from the target point. He drops his drone-mine, which sails at around ten knots, near the bottom“, he explains. “The target is fixed so it’s not very complicated“. On the other hand, the hypothesis of the torpedo, useful rather for a moving target, is according to him less plausible. The explosion “corresponds to several hundred kilos of TNT equivalent“, he specifies. The Norwegian seismological institute NORSAR, which specializes in detecting earthquakes and nuclear explosions, estimated the second detonation at 700 kilos.
Unclaimed operation
The chancelleries point the finger at Moscow, which itself does not exclude “no guesswork” and reminds us that the gas escaping from the pipelines belongs to him. “The Baltic Sea is confined and shallow and almost every movement is tracked and observed by the littoral states and their ships“, points out Julian Pawlak, of the Helmut Schmidt University of Hamburg. “Ships and submarines are capable of deploying combat divers there in hiding” and other remotely guided underwater vehicles. But nothing is impossible for an army experienced in the art of clandestine operations.
“It’s called a naval special operation. It’s not easy but it happens“, summarizes the French military source. “It looks like something well-coordinated and well-prepared“. It may take time for the truth to credibly emerge. Some analysts observe in this respect that vagueness benefits many players.
But then who?
“It remains to be seen who has the paternity of the operation“, adds this military source. “Other countries have an interest in the ‘pipe’ never being able to work again“. Fact, the opponents of Nord Stream 2 have been numerous for years, the United States in the lead. On February 7, shortly before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, US President Joe Biden raised the possibility of “end“. Asked about the method used for an infrastructure under the control of his German ally, he replied: “I promise you, we’ll be able to do it“. The video has been circulating extensively for 24 hours on social networks.
On Tuesday, moreover, Poland, Norway and Denmark inaugurated a strategic gas pipeline which will allow Poles and Europeans to be less dependent on deliveries from Moscow. “The era of Russian gas dominance comes to an end“, said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki during his inauguration. Two certainties at this stage: first, the event is linked to the war in Ukraine. “NATO maritime command and allied ships consider and prepare for hybrid activities, including sabotage of critical infrastructure, outside the main objective of collective defense“, assures Julian Pawlak.
Then, it creates additional instability in the European economy. “This is a stark reminder of the vulnerability of our energy infrastructure“, believes Lion Hirth. He favors the Russian track. “If that’s true, that’s pretty worrying. At the very least, this means that Russia (…) sends the clearest possible signal that it will not deliver any more gas in the near future“Whoever they are, those who attacked Nord Stream also make clear that they could strike at other energy infrastructures serving a Europe thirsty for gas and oil.