what are the consequences of the war in Lebanon on Syria, another ally of Iran?

Part of the “axis of resistance to Israel” set up by Iran, Bashar al-Assad’s Syria had been able to remain relatively away from the tremors of the conflict in Gaza. But the offensive in Lebanon concerns it more and more seriously.

For years, Israel has regularly struck Syria, without always claiming it. The targets are multiple: members of Hezbollah, officials of the Revolutionary Guards, visiting Iranian generals, or even ammunition depots and arms convoys destined for Hezbollah – in transit to Lebanon.

Bombings have intensified in recent weeks in the country and on its border with Lebanon. If Bashar al-Assad’s Syria is in the sights, it is because it occupies a central role in what Iran calls “the axis of resistance to Israel”. Unlike Hezbollah, Hamas, the Iraqi Shiite militias or the Houthis of Yemen, Syria is a state.

Its geographical location is also essential to Iran, because it offers it access to the sea, the Mediterranean, and it has a common border with Israel, which makes it a valuable stronghold to threaten the Jewish state. It allows the land supply of weapons to Hezbollah, with convoys passing through Iraq. Hence Israel’s interest in striking Syria to destabilize Iran.

Does the Israeli government intend to go further and make it its next target?
There is nothing to confirm this at the moment. For the moment, it is not the Syrian regime as such that is being targeted, it is its supporters: Iran’s proxies, their infrastructure, the militias who rushed to the aid of Bashar al-Assad from the outbreak of the war in Syria in 2011. Hezbollah in particular.

For the Hebrew State, it is a question of preventing Iran from expanding its presence in Syria, as well as of dissuading the Syrian president, if he had the inclination and the ability, to come to the aid of his pro-allies. Iranians in Lebanon. In this case, the risk would be high. Bashar al-Assad, whatever one may say, is a head of state and not a militia, and the United States, Israel’s unwavering supporter, would strongly oppose it.

The American position also aligns with that of Russia which, with Iran, is the other sponsor of Bashar al-Assad. Moscow is keen on its two strategic military bases in Syria. The stakes would therefore be very high.
But the shock wave in Syria from the war in Lebanon is very real. The country is facing an influx of some 400,000 refugees from Lebanon, mainly Syrians who had already fled the war at home and are therefore undertaking the return journey.

These hundreds of thousands of people arrive in a country on its knees, with destroyed infrastructure, whose population lives in extreme poverty. This influx will therefore further complicate the humanitarian and economic situation of a bloodless Syria after more than 10 years of war.