No cooling in sight. The fate of the Zaporijjia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine remains very uncertain, after almost six months of occupation by the Russian army and a succession of clashes which pose the risk of a nuclear disaster. If kyiv wants at all costs to regain control of the plant and its six reactors, Moscow’s intentions remain ambiguous to say the least. Franceinfo takes stock of Russia’s actions and statements regarding Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.
Ukraine accuses Russian troops of using the plant as a shield
Rather talkative when it comes to the invasion of Ukraine, which he continues to describe as a “special military operation”, Vladimir Putin waited until August 19 to speak publicly about the situation in Zaporijjia. That is 168 days after the takeover, on March 4, of the plant by the Russian army. During a telephone interview with Emmanuel Macron, the strongman of the Kremlin accused the Ukrainian army of bombarding the site, thus posing the risk of a “large-scale disaster”, as reported by New York Times (in English).
Apart from this spade launched at the opposing camp, Vladimir Putin did not leak anything about this power station bordered by the Dnieper River, which is mainly located on the front line and regularly comes under heavy artillery fire. Since the start of the war, Moscow has accused the Ukrainian army of “sabotage” and dangerous strikes on the plant. Opposite, kyiv rejects these accusations and repeats that the Russian army is using the plant as a shield to be able to fire on the Ukrainians stationed on the north bank of the river. No independent source has yet identified with certainty the perpetrators of the strikes that hit the plant.
“We already know from satellite images that the Russians are using the site as a shield and as an arsenal: they have stored heavy weapons there”comment in The Parisian Dimitri Minic, researcher specializing in Russian geopolitics at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). “We also know, without excluding the possibility of Ukrainian fire, that Russia is accustomed to false flag actions.” A type of operation consisting of making it look like an enemy attack.
The Ukrainian operator fears a recovery in electricity production
Could Russia take full control of the plant to supply the occupied territories and neighboring Crimea, which it annexed in 2014? This is the scenario feared by Petro Kotin, President of Energoatom, the Ukrainian public nuclear operator which operates the Zaporijjia power plant. “The Russian military (…) are implementing the program of Rosatom [l’opérateur nucléaire russe] aimed at connecting the plant to the Crimean electricity networks”he said on August 9 on Ukrainian television, before unfolding a disturbing scenario.
“To do this, you must first damage the power lines of the plant connected to the Ukrainian energy system. Between August 7 and 9, the Russians have already damaged three power lines”, he warned. Thursday, August 25, the Ukrainian authorities announced that the plant had even been completely disconnected from the national grid because of damage caused by the Russian army, before being reconnected on Friday afternoon. The Kremlin defended itself by assuring that the nuclear site had suffered several Ukrainian strikes in the days preceding the incident.
“Disconnecting the current is easy. Connecting is more complicated”however tempers Hervé Bodineau, expert at the Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN), interviewed by The Parisian. “It seems difficult to me to set up a construction site for pylons and very high voltage lines in the middle of a war zone. Currently, the plant is connected to the South [occupé par les Russes] by a single very high voltage line, 330 kW. It is not sufficient to ‘support’ all of the plant’s production. The capacity of the line does not allow it.”
The central is a means of pressure for both sides
On the international scene, the specter of a nuclear catastrophe – even less serious than that of Chernobyl in 1986 – represents a lever for both kyiv and Moscow. “Any radioactive incident at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant can strike a blow to European Union countries, Turkey, Georgia and countries in more distant regions. It all depends on the direction and strength of the wind”warned Monday, August 15 the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, who hopes that this major crisis will strengthen the mobilization for the Ukrainian cause.
For his part, Vladimir Putin has a powerful means of pressure on Ukraine and the rest of Europe, according to Sergei Jirnov, a former spy for the Russian secret services. “Putin wants to blackmail the whole world with the Zaporizhia power plant”did he declare at Figaro. The showdown around the power plant would, according to the ex-secret agent, offer some respite to the master of the Kremlin: “He wants a break because he’s exhausted and he can’t do anything”. A thesis confirmed by Ifri expert Dimitri Minic: Russia practices, according to him, “nuclear blackmail, just as she blackmailed world starvation, with the aim of returning to the center of the diplomatic game and sowing discord among Westerners”.
By multiplying nuclear disaster alerts, Moscow justifies its control over this ultra-sensitive site, despite repeated requests from the UN to demilitarize the area as quickly as possible. “Any attack on a nuclear power plant would be suicidal”, notably launched António Guterres, the Secretary General of the United Nations, during a press conference on August 8. The organization called for a halt to military operations around Zaporizhia so that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could access it for inspections. A request rejected by Russia, which believes that a withdrawal of its troops would make the plant even more “vulnerable”. Vladimir Putin, however, promised that Russia will offer “help needed” for an upcoming visit by IAEA emissaries, without giving a more precise timetable.
But hasn the 185th day of the war in Ukraine, fighting remains sporadic but very present around the site. And the teams of Ukrainian engineers, still stationed in the plant, are trying at all costs to keep it running smoothly.