What are kyiv’s goals after the large-scale military incursion into the Russian region of Kursk?

The ground offensive, launched on August 6, has led to the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians. “The main task of the Defense Ministry is undoubtedly to expel the enemy from our territories,” Vladimir Putin said Monday during a televised meeting.

Ukraine is fighting back. Thousands of troops are engaged in an unprecedented operation in Russia’s Kursk region, having crossed the border and taken control of about thirty localities in an area of ​​several hundred square kilometers. kyiv has not given any details on the operational situation and Ukrainian troops are operating in “radio silence” mode. Volodymyr Zelensky, however, acknowledged on Saturday evening that his country was seeking to “moving the war to the territory of the aggressor”Earlier this week, the White House said it would contact kyiv to learn more about the “goals” of this incursion into Russian territory.

After months of Ukrainian retreat on the eastern front, this offensive has in any case surprised Russia. The incursion was initially aimed at diverting Russian forces from the Ukrainian regions of Kharkiv and Donbass to ease their pressure on the Ukrainian army, according to a Ukrainian official interviewed by AFP. But, for now, “Their pressure in the East continues. They are not withdrawing their troops from this area.”even if “the intensity” Russian attacks there “a little bit lowered”The official said Ukraine’s Western allies had been warned of the incursion. “since Western weapons are actively used” in this operation which constitutes the largest offensive by a foreign army on Russian soil since the Second World War.

The Russian Defense Ministry has indeed announced the transfer of some of the units fighting in the Kharkiv region. But for the moment, no units fighting in the Donetsk region seem to have been redeployed to Kursk, also underlines the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), an independent Russian analyst group. “There has been no noticeable slowdown in the Russian offensive, but this is the most obvious and achievable objective of this operation.”

“For now, this is a limited operation, the direct consequence of which will be to reduce the stability of the Russian grouping that is attacking or prowling around Kharkiv.”military analyst Oleksiy Kopytko believes on social networks. “Judging by the scale and intensity of the Ukrainian operation, sooner or later the enemy will be forced to withdraw troops from other theaters of operations”notes Ukrainian observer Kostiantyn Machovets on Facebook. Previous raids on Russian territory, claimed by Russian volunteer corps, did not achieve such results, but they were much smaller in scale.

The Ukrainian army’s incursion “is not a territorial conquest”estimates on franceinfo General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the National Defense Review. The Kursk region is a “extremely important logistics base” and a “railway junction”he explains. She is not “not protected as we can see in Donbass.” Jérôme Pellistrandi emphasizes that the Ukrainian army was able to “to cause enough damage to force the Russians to review their system” and “to recall, for example, troops who are on the front line to plug the gaps” in this region.

And for good reason: for almost a week, 28 localities in the Kursk region have come under Ukrainian control, acknowledged the acting local Russian governor, Alexei Smirnov, who spoke on Monday via videoconference. Even more striking, the official specified that the Ukrainian operation in Russian territory extends over an area 40 kilometers wide and 12 kilometers deep. For its part, the Ukrainian army is even talking about an even wider area. “We continue to conduct offensive operations in the Kursk region. At present [lundi après-midi]we control about 1,000 km2 of the territory of the Russian Federation”said Ukrainian army commander Oleksandr Syrsky during a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“I think one of the goals [de Kiev] is to withdraw the reserves [russes]to simplify the actions of our military in the Kharkiv sector and perhaps in other regions”Ukrainian military expert Serguiï Zgourets told AFP. The geography of this area in Russia allows “to effectively carry out this type of deterrent action against the enemy, with a reduced force, and this is probably what the Ukrainian army is doing.”

The attack could also have a psychological effect, boosting the morale of Ukrainians who see their army struggling elsewhere, while destabilizing Russia. “Another goal is to show Russian society what it feels like when your territory is occupied.”Sergei Solodky, a senior official at the New Europe Centre think tank in kyiv, told AFP.

Finally, some argue that if Ukraine manages to hold on to these territories, it could use them against Russia in hypothetical peace negotiations. It is crucial for kyiv to put all the cards on its side before the American presidential election that could once again install Donald Trump, skeptical of it, in the White House. This argument does not convince the CIT, because it assumes that the Ukrainian forces manage to keep control of these territories until the elections, scheduled for November. A task deemed “extremely difficult”according to these analysts.

Sooner or later, Russia will “Stop” Ukrainian units in the Kursk region, but if “After a while, if she can’t take back these territories, they can be used for political purposes”judges the Ukrainian official interviewed by AFP.

In the meantime, Ukrainian soldiers are still trying to consolidate their territorial gains, according to several pro-Russian analysts, as they build defenses. “The main task of the Ministry of Defense is undoubtedly to expel the enemy from our territories”Vladimir Putin reacted on Monday, during a meeting broadcast on television. “The enemy is seeking to improve its negotiating position in the future”the Russian president commented, accusing kyiv of“to execute the will” Westerners.

This offensive is not without consequences for the Russian civilian population. “To date, 121,000” people “have left or have been evacuated” from the Kursk region, announced the governor Alexei Smirnov, speaking of at least 12 civilians killed and 121 others injured. Enough to sow confusion in the Kremlin.